The longest college football season in history now has its 12-team College Football Playoff bracket. Football fans now need to pretend it is March and remember how they approach a bracket.
There are two keys to a bracket. The first it the obvious filling out of the bracket.
The second is recognizing value in futures tickets presented by paths through said bracket.
That second endeavor was already emphasized when the selection committee placed Penn State at No. 6 and Notre Dame at No. 7. The late Saturday night consensus and Bowl Game odds expected those two to be flipped. At that point, the highest odds on Notre Dame winning the national championship were +750, and the highest on Penn State were +1,400.
After the bracket was released, the Irish odds spiked to +1,200 while the Nittany Lions fell to +800.
The path from the No. 6 seed was that enviable.
What combination of path and college football odds presents the best value in this wide-open 12-team Playoff?
College Football National Championship odds
College Football Playoff bracket
SMU Mustangs odds
Best odds: +5000 at BetRivers
Let no one claim SMU should not be in the Playoff. Let no one claim Alabama needs to schedule easier non-conference games to adjust to a new world. The Crimson Tide lost three games in the SEC. Tough break. If you want the massive payday of the SEC’s TV deal, then you run the risk of those losses.
But do not expect SMU to make a run in the Playoff. The Mustangs were very much the beneficiaries of a light ACC schedule, facing just one of the other Top 5 teams in the conference.
Now, the Mustangs would need to win four games tougher than any they played in the regular season. As impressive as their comeback in the ACC championship game was, this is too much of an ask, and the odds could not be high enough to justify betting on this path.
Clemson Tigers odds
Best odds: +6000 at FanDuel
The Clemson Tigers are playing well and earned this spot more than they are given credit for. But, among other things, nearly giving away a 17-point fourth-quarter lead on Saturday is cause for concern. Clemson just melted down.
To be more precise, it did give away that lead. A tie game necessitated that last-second 56-yard field goal.
Texas’ defense is too stout to be that sloppy. It will put Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik on his back a bit. And even if the Tigers advance, their rush defense will give up success to Arizona State star running back Cam Skattebo.
Arizona State Sun Devils odds
Best odds: +6000 at FanDuel
The Arizona State Sun Devils don't have a solid chance of winning it all. They capitalized on multiple Big 12 collapses and then rode Skattebo to a dominant performance in the Big 12 championship game against Iowa State.
But Arizona State’s passing offense is now non-existent thanks to the season-ending injury to leading receiver Jordyn Tyson. Quarterback Sam Leavitt attempted 17 passes in that win and Skattebo ran 16 times.
That can win a game against an opponent scraping its ceiling like the Cyclones. It can possibly win one game in the Playoff. But in 2024, no team has a championship ceiling without a potent passing game. Losing Tyson robs Arizona State of any semblance of a passing game.
Skattebo is excellent, but you cannot expect him to carry the load for three games against stout defenses, at which point, the Sun Devils offense will collapse.
Tennessee Volunteers odds
Best odds: +3300 at BetRivers
When Ohio State lost to Michigan, it damaged Tennessee’s title hopes more than anything else outside of Ryan Day’s reputation. Despite that dud, the Buckeyes are a Top 2 team in the country.
So that is a tough opening-round draw.
Know what's worse? Having to face No. 1 overall Oregon in the quarterfinals, should it somehow advance.
No one faces a stiffer uphill climb than the Volunteers.
Boise State Broncos odds
Best odds: +7500 at FanDuel
Maybe Ashton Jeanty knows no pain. Maybe he will never wear down. Maybe the presumptive Heisman runner-up is as inevitable as death and taxes.
But probably not.
Boise State will find rushing success in its quarterfinal matchup against the winner of SMU and Penn State, but will the Broncos stop these offenses, the best they have faced since early September?
That is far less likely.
And it is beyond fathoming to think Boise State will find that kind of defense for three games in a row.
Georgia Bulldogs odds
Best odds: +380 at DraftKings
An encouraging sign for the Georgia Bulldogs and veteran quarterback Carson Beck, their national championship odds shortened to +380 from a best-available number of +400 during the Saturday overnight. Maybe Beck’s elbow injury isn't as concerning as it seemed.
But the visual of Beck taking the field for the game-winning handoff with his right arm — his throwing arm — dangling at his side remains a distinct one.
Without Beck, Georgia’s bad offense looked even worse on Saturday. Backup Gunner Stockton played well enough to win in overtime, but as opponents get more film on him, life will become more difficult.
No futures bet can be justified on Georgia until Beck’s status is better known. The Bulldogs won the 2021 title with a generationally excellent defense. They still have a very good defense, but it can't win a title on its own as that one did.
Oregon Ducks odds
Best odds: +380 at FanDuel
The Oregon Ducks are the best team in the country. They have not lost. They earned this No. 1 seed.
Then why are they the sixth-most valuable future? In part because their second-round matchup could be such a challenge.
If we are blessed with an Ohio State vs. Oregon rematch — Oregon won at home by one point in mid-October — then the Ducks’ moneyline will be relatively short. For the sake of this conversation, let’s conservatively put it at -140. Betting $100 would win $71.43. Again, simply using easy numbers for this conversation.
If Oregon draws Texas in the semifinals, it would not be a much heavier favorite. Let’s, again conservatively, say -150. That $171.43 would then win $114.29, bringing the rolled-over bankroll to $285.72.
If the national championship game spread was something similar — as it would be against the likes of Georgia, Penn State, and arguably Notre Dame — then the moneyline rollover approach would pay out better than this +380 future. The quarterfinal challenge of Ohio State boosts that reality.
If Oregon was closer to +450, there could be a discussion about the straightforward futures bet.
Texas Longhorns odds
Best odds: +450 at bet365
Texas, meanwhile, should dispatch Clemson and Arizona State thanks to a strong defense. There is no desirable way to attack it, which raises the Longhorns’ floor.
And Ohio State getting a shot at Oregon before Texas does further helps this future. The Longhorns would be much happier facing the Buckeyes’ depleted offensive line, and that possibility should not be ruled out.
Indiana Hoosiers odds
Best odds: +5000 at BetRivers
The Indiana Hoosiers can no longer catch anyone off guard. Notre Dame head coach Marcus Freeman has already googled Curt Cignetti (Points to Freeman for the Sunday reference).
Marcus Freeman is in on the bit.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) December 8, 2024
"I didn't know much about [Curt Cignetti]. I took a minute and Googled him. He's won everywhere he's been."
But the Hoosiers’ high-octane offense could conceivably be better than understood, particularly now that its weaknesses have been pointed out.
Everyone saw Indiana’s offensive line struggle with Michigan and get walloped by Ohio State. Cignetti saw it, too.
If the Hoosiers scheme up an adjustment, this 50/1 ticket would suddenly have value. Furthermore, their offense ranks No. 4 in expected points added (EPA) per dropback, No. 3 in quality-possession rate, and No. 1 in points per quality possession. Variance will be on its side.
Variance fits nicely with a +5,000 ticket.
The No. 4 dropback offense vs. the No. 1 dropback defense.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) December 8, 2024
The No. 3 quality possession rate offense vs. the No. 1 quality possession rate defense.
Indiana's passing success with a cold football at Notre Dame is going to be a dominating thought for the next 12 days. https://t.co/qDUC9s1hXl pic.twitter.com/xLhaSYrN4E
Ohio State Buckeyes odds
Best odds: +550 at BetRivers
You will hear some abstract conversation that perhaps Ohio State Buckeyes fans are too disappointed after that Michigan loss to relish a home Playoff game. Dismiss it. The only thing louder than a riding-high Ohio State fan is an angry Ohio State fan.
You will hear some worthwhile conversation that perhaps the Buckeyes’ offensive line is too beat up for a sustained Playoff run. It is valid, but the Ohio State coaching staff has three weeks to scheme up some success, and offensive lines usually need that kind of time to simply adjust and gel. It will be better in the Playoff than it looked against Michigan.
And you will hear some praise of Tennessee’s offense before the first-round matchup. Dismiss that, too. The Buckeyes have the best defense in the country, and they will enjoy the predictability of Josh Heupel’s offense.
Ohio State is a Top 2 team in the country. It has a long Playoff path, but a +550 ticket would be a strong addition to your portfolio.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish odds
Best odds: +1200 at FanDuel
A cold home game against a pass-first offense bodes well for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish given no one has successfully passed on them all season. Really, no one, aside from a literal bounce pass from Virginia.
Then there is value in this Irish future because of the Carson Beck uncertainty. If he is injured, that Sugar Bowl matchup would become an absolute slugfest between two defenses. The thing is, Notre Dame’s rushing game has looked significantly better this season than Georgia’s.
Missing the No. 6 seed hurt the Irish, but the possibility of Beck being injured on New Year’s Day creates distinct value in a 12-to-1 ticket.
Penn State Nittany Lions odds
Best odds: +800 at bet365
The Penn State Nittany Lions were Sunday’s biggest winners. The No. 6 seed has the absolute best path through the Playoff, despite having to play a first-round game. Penn State gets a home game against unproven SMU and a chance to simply outscore Ashton Jeanty — look for Nittany Lions offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki to scheme up absolute delights in that matchup — before having to possibly face Georgia.
No one else has as clear a path to the Playoff semifinals. To avoid the top two teams in the country in Oregon and Ohio State until the national championship is only an added perk.
This draw nearly halved Penn State’s title odds, and that was still not a big enough drop.
