The 12-team College Football Playoff may have been underrated. More games have impacted the postseason picture all season long, and entering this final weekend, nearly two dozen teams still have genuine paths to the Playoff.
That is not counting the back half of the Big 12’s chaos or even Colorado State. Those would push this total to nearly 30.
The Top 20 of the selection committee’s rankings all have viable national championship hopes entering Thanksgiving weekend, as do No. 22 UNLV and No. 25 Colorado. Likely to win it all? Of course not, but they could at least imagine getting a chance to prove themselves on the field in December.
Combining the glory of rivalry weekend with those furthered Playoff hopes makes for a delightful Week 14 in our college football picks.
College football betting news for Week 14
- 22 Playoff Hopefuls
- Genuine Playoff Implications
- On the Field in Death Valley...
- Bonus Bet from Douglas
- A Bet for Every Saturday Window
- Tuesday pod recap
- Saturday pod teaser
Douglas's CFB news and notes
22 Playoff Hopefuls
Well, 21 after Tulane lost to Memphis on Thanksgiving. From 12 to 15, Clemson, Alabama, Mississippi, and South Carolina all know upsets are inevitable and someone may yet fall from the Top 11.
The four Big 12 teams that entered the weekend with 6-2 conference records all know the slightest tremors from one of the others could propel them into the Playoff. No. 16 Arizona State, for example, knows it is into the Big 12 title game with a win at Arizona on Saturday.
No. 20 Texas A&M is into the SEC championship game if it upsets No. 3 Texas this weekend, and No. 22 UNLV will face No. 11 Boise State in the Mountain West title game if the Rebels simply beat Nevada on Saturday.
All 21 of those teams can go to bed tonight with rational daydreams of winning the national championship. They do not need absolute chaos to get that chance.
The 12-team Playoff gave us that.
Let’s be thankful for it.
Before you hit the road for Thanksgiving, download this week's "College Football 134."
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) November 26, 2024
?Week 13 reaction
?Playoff debate -- Alabama or South Carolina or Tulane?
?Best Bets, including two on Thursday and one on Friday.
? https://t.co/reL2QcBnS8
?https://t.co/qlR5hnZ3GA pic.twitter.com/mjXaUCUJL8
Genuine Playoff Implications
There is a rankings component to ponder in the Palmetto Bowl, and there is an on-field component to ponder. Let’s start with the rankings.
No. 12 Clemson and No. 15 South Carolina are both within notable range of making the Playoff with a win this weekend. The Tigers, in particular, can trust at least one team ahead of them will lose thanks to Miami being at No. 6 and SMU at No. 9.
That ACC championship game loss could push Clemson into the field’s final spot.
But even aside from that, beating South Carolina would be a more impressive win than anything No. 10 Indiana can claim. The Tigers would have an argument to jump the Hoosiers.
The Gamecocks’ case is more complicated. They lost to No. 13 Alabama and No. 14 Mississippi. Would an active six-game winning streak with three wins coming against Top-25 teams be enough for the committee to overlook those head-to-head losses?
This rivalry looks to be a certain play-your-way-in moment for Clemson, but only a possible one for South Carolina.
A Western Kentucky risk.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) November 29, 2024
Tajh Brooks.
A +220 outright underdog.
And of course I have a bet for you on the last game of the season. I would never fail you on that.
Week 14 Best Bets, via @Covers: https://t.co/N7RocnTCDJ
On the field in Death Valley...
Entering the season, one could look across the entire ACC and doubt any defensive front would be all that notable.
That has proven rather true, even if Pittsburgh, North Carolina, Duke, Miami, and SMU all rank in the Top 14 of the country in sacks per game this season. Notably, Clemson has faced only one of those, giving up five sacks to Pittsburgh two weeks ago.
South Carolina ranks No. 3 despite facing a bounty of stout SEC offensive lines. The Gamecocks’ defensive front may be the best single unit in the country. At the least, it is a piece of any such conversation.
Sacks are underrated in general. Log a sack and the chances of the drive stalling skyrocket. In that respect, sacks have much of the same impact as a turnover. They lead to a change in possession, and they influence field position; one just does not do these things as drastically.
If Clemson keeps Cade Klubnik upright, the Tigers may reach the College Football Playoff.
If South Carolina lives in the Tigers’ backfield, then the Gamecocks are going to make the committee’s lives much more difficult.
Bonus Bet from Douglas
All season long, these bonus bets have found their way to our free betting picks, so even if someone did not read this column, they would have seen the bet. This one will not.
I currently have 11 plays up on the @Covers free picks page. You don't have to tail all of them, you probably shouldn't, but that page is a great one-stop shop to spark your thinking.https://t.co/qZg41CddzO pic.twitter.com/o3PqV0M7PJ
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) November 29, 2024
No, that is not an attempt to make anyone feel special.
It is because this is a conditional bet.
Arizona State is an 8.5-point favorite at Arizona at 3:30 ET, Iowa State is a 2.5-point home favorite against Kansas State at 7:30 ET, and BYU kicks off against Houston as a 13-point favorite at 10:15 ET.
If either Arizona State loses or Iowa State looks to be in trouble in Farmageddon, then put faith in BYU. If the Sun Devils win and the Cyclones look well on their way to a victory when the Cougars kick off, doubt them.
To reach the Big 12 title game, BYU needs at least one of Arizona State or Iowa State to lose.
Houston fired its offensive coordinator this week, rather understandable after it averaged 12.25 points in Big 12 games this season, falling short of two touchdowns in four of eight.
BYU’s strength is its defense, ranking No. 20 in the country in expected points added (EPA) per snap against, according to cfb-graphs.
If a chance at the Big 12 title game lingers, BYU will lean on what it does best, while Houston is disjointed as it turns to a new offensive coordinator on a holiday week, especially since he was not fired until Tuesday.
?Conditional Bet from Douglas: Houston team total Under 13.5 (+102 at FanDuel)?
A Bet for Every Saturday Window
You do not need to always have a bet down. You shouldn’t. You should bet only when you see clear value. But if you insist on having at least one piece of action for every moment of Saturday …
12:00 ET — Ohio State -19.5 vs. Michigan (-110 at FanDuel as of Friday afternoon)
Saturday will be the five-year anniversary since the last time Ohio State beat Michigan, to the day.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) November 28, 2024
Speaking of days, Ryan Day needs this. He needs it emphatically. pic.twitter.com/6FTlEIf3s6
3:30 ET — Syracuse +11.5 vs. Miami (-115 at FanDuel)
7:00 ET — Virginia moneyline at Virginia Tech (+220 at BetMGM)
After Dark — New Mexico -3 at Hawaii (-110 at BetMGM)
College Football 134 Tuesday recap
“College Football 134” records twice a week for a pile of reasons. One of them is to try to give you a headstart on some weekend lines. That Tuesday show found three bets for the weekday schedule on this holiday week.
There is value to be had in subscribing and listening to that Tuesday episode as it hits your feeds on Tuesday nights or perhaps on your Wednesday morning commute.
??Listen to Tuesday's episode of the Covers 134 pod here??
LIVE Saturday at 9 a.m. ET
There is not a question Douglas Farmer and Andrew Caley would not answer during the Saturday morning live show. All you have to do is ask it. Preferably, it is about college football. Curious about Jacksonville State at Western Kentucky? Have at ‘em.
Wondering who might be the next North Carolina head coach? That makes two of us.
If you want to ask for life advice, what’s the worst that can happen?
Now to beat the Les Miserables crowd to the bar. Cheers.
Check out the College Football 134 podcast Saturday pregame show at 9 a.m. ET on the Covers YouTube channel.
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