The Oklahoma City Thunder have successfully found the winning formula without Chet Holmgren after losing the big man to an injury over a month ago, and now they’ll carry a run of six wins in seven games into a clash with the New Orleans Pelicans on Saturday.
We’ll take a look at a concerning development for the road team in our Thunder vs. Pelicans predictions to explain why New Orleans’ frontcourt should be able to pick up the slack after a slog of a season and highlight two players who should have the chance to shine here.
Let’s dig into some NBA player props and hand out some NBA picks for Saturday, December 7.
Thunder vs Pelicans prediction
My best bet
Pelicans +8 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The New Orleans Pelicans long nine-game losing streak finally came to an end on Thursday when they took out the Phoenix Suns at home, and it featured a 38.9% shooting night from 3 and a competitive game on the glass where they lost the battle on the glass by just two boards.
Rebounding has been an issue for New Orleans, which ranks just 23d in that regard, and so too has shooting with the third-worst conversion rate from the arc. The Pelicans have opted to shoot from the mid-range more than almost any team this season, but in every zone it’s been a nightmare for this offense.
The Oklahoma City Thunder could offer some reprieve, sitting just 20th in mid-range defense over the last two weeks and continuing to look abysmal on the glass. It could be a trend worth believing in, too, considering the Thunder have yielded the second-highest rate of mid-range jumpers in the NBA. Teams have been finding plenty of space to shoot in this area of the floor and it was only a matter of time before they began to knock these shots down with consistency.
I’m also a little interested in the fact that the Pelicans have yielded a stunningly low 19% of shots to come from the mid-range in the last two weeks to rank first in the NBA, considering this has been the preferred spot to score for Oklahoma City over that same span by quite a large margin.
The Thunder have also lacked the ability to score at the rim in the last two weeks, and coupled with the rebounding issues, New Orleans should look a bit sharper in the frontcourt after failing to produce all season long.
This is a Thunder team that has played a lot of basketball in the last two weeks and will soon receive an additional day of rest after this game before heading to Dallas on Tuesday, and with some progressive fatigue and slight spots of worry, I think the Pelicans, who seem to be figuring things out with a couple of promising performances in the last two games, can keep matters rather close.
Thunder vs Pelicans same-game parlay
Pelicans +8
Yves Missi Over 8.5 Rebounds
Brandon Ingram Over 19.5 points
The Thunder may have been able to return Isaiah Hartenstein into the lineup a few weeks ago in what was a critical point in the season, but in the last 14 days this team still ranks just 14th in rebounding rate. That’s of note to me here as I get set to back Yves Missi to have yet another great evening on the glass.
The big man has gone for 12 rebounds in back-to-back games and has hit this benchmark in four of his last six contests. He’s leading the team with a 16.8% rebounding rate over the last two weeks, and most critically he’s received plenty of run of late with 28.6 minutes per game over his last six.
I expect a big game on the boards, just as we saw a month ago when he went for 10 rebounds in 27 minutes against the Thunder, and Brandon Ingram, who scored 18 points in that meeting, should take a further step forward with the growing liability the Thunder have in the mid-range.
He’s been this team’s best option in that area, and after returning from a five-game absence on Thursday, he scored 29 points against a Suns team, that has been similarly generous against jump shooters like Ingram.
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Thunder vs Pelicans odds
Thunder vs Pelicans live odds
Thunder vs Pelicans opening odds
- Spread: Oklahoma City -8 (-110) | New Orleans +8 (-110)
- Moneyline: Oklahoma City (-340) | New Orleans (+240)
- Over/Under: Over 224.5 (-115) | Under 224.5 (-105)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Thunder vs Pelicans spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Pelicans were bet down to 7.5-point underdogs within a few hours of the line opening, and after the line swung the other way to 8.5 points early Saturday, it settled back down at eight points.
- While the Thunder have commanded 67% of the spread bets, a firm 80% of the money is headed that way.
- The total almost instantly jumped to 226 points before diving all the way down to 225 in the span of three hours on Friday night. It was then bet back up to 225 before falling once again to 222.5 on Saturday afternoon.
- The Over has accounted for 64% of the tickets, but the Under makes up 57% of the handle.
Thunder vs Pelicans trend
The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 35 of their last 78 games. Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs. Pelicans.
How to watch Thunder vs Pelicans
| Location: | Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, LA |
| Date: | Saturday, 12-7-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | GCSEN, FanDuel Sports Network - Oklahoma |
Thunder vs Pelicans latest injuries
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