The Toronto Raptors' hard work resulted in a much-deserved win last time out, and they’ll try to carry that momentum into an NBA In-Season Tournament game against the Miami Heat.
My Raptors vs. Heat predictions highlight the work ethic of Scottie Barnes, more specifically his work ethic on the boards.
Check out my NBA picks for this Eastern Conference matchup on November 29.
Raptors vs Heat prediction
My Raptors pick
Scottie Barnes Over 7.5 rebounds (+100 at PointsBet Canada)
My analysis
The Toronto Raptors have arguably been better than their record all season, as evidenced by their 13-6 mark against the spread. And now that Scottie Barnes is back, the wins are starting to come.
In fact, the Raps head into tonight’s NBA In-Season Tournament matchup against the Miami Heat winners in three of their last five games.
Having Barnes back is a big deal, as he looks like the missing piece. Not only is the former Rookie of the Year putting up 20.8 points per game since his return, he’s averaging nine rebounds and 6.8 assists.
It has been an inconsistent start to the season for the Heat, who enter this game with an 8-8 straight-up record while going 7-9 ATS. The defense is still solid, but the offense has shown dome room for improvement, ranking 18th in offensive rating and 21st in effective field goal percentage.
Another area where Miami is struggling is on the boards. The Heat rank 20th in the NBA in rebounding rate while surrendering the fifth-most opponent rebounds per game. This means Barnes could be a problem on the glass tonight.
Barnes has been a beast on the boards, hauling down 33 rebounds over his last three games. His rebounding prop is on the board at 7.5.
He’s had no fewer than seven boards over that stretch, and our Covers Prop Projections have him set an even 8.0 rebounds for this matchup. With the Over at even money, I’m backing Barnes to keep cleaning the glass.
Raptors vs Heat same-game parlay
Scottie Barnes Over 7.5 rebounds
Raptors +7.5
Duncan Robinson Under 2.5 threes
The Raptors have been cashing bets all season long and I think they’re set up well to cash another one tonight.
That’s because I believe Toronto, who ranks fourth in the NBA in rebounding rate, can win the battle on the boards and get out and run, forcing the Heat to play at its pace. The more possessions, the better.
The other reason to like the Raptors here is because the defense is improving. Over the last eight games, they rank seventh in defense rating, while Miami is a slow-paced team that ranks 18th in eFG%.
The Raps have been particularly good at defending the perimeter, ranking sixth in opponent 3-point shooting percentage.
That’s why I’m targeting Duncan Robinson to go Under his made-threes prop. It’s set at 2.5 for this matchup, and while he hit six treys against the Hornets last time out, he’s only gone Over this number twice in his last eight games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Raptors vs Heat odds
Raptors vs Heat live odds
Raptors vs Heat opening odds
- Spread: Toronto +7 | Miami -7
- Moneyline: Toronto +240 | Miami -300
- Over/Under: Over 221.5 | Under 221.5
Odds courtesy of PointsBet Canada
Raptors vs Heat spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Raptors opened this Eastern Conference matchup as seven-point road underdogs, and after seeing some early action, it has been mostly Heat money coming in, with the line now sitting at 7.5.
- The Raptors continue to be one of the best bets in the NBA with a 13-6 ATS record. Toronto has accomplished this thanks to its high-tempo, unselfish offense that never takes a play off.
- The total hit the board at 221.5 and has been steadily bet down, sitting at 219.5 as of Friday afternoon.
- The Raptors' defense was awful to start the season and with the fast-paced offense they were cashing a bunch of Overs. But the defense has steadily improved and they now rank 21st in DEF rating. Mix that with the Heat's slow pace and inefficient offense and the Under money makes sense.
Raptors vs Heat trend
The Under is 9-2 in the Raptors' last 11 games overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Raptors vs. Heat.
How to watch Raptors vs Heat
| Location: | Kaseya Center, Miami, FL |
| Date: | Friday, 11-29-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN |
Raptors vs Heat latest injuries
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