Profitable Picks - Guide

Gents, 

Adding a thread in general topics to outline some of my thoughts and processes for upcoming picks in a litany of sports.  Floundering recreational bettor for years, mentored with a professional and have been profitable in MOST (baseball is a hard nut to crack) sports over the last 18 months.  I do not claim to be brilliant, sharp, or better than anyone else, but just aim to profitable and share what I have learned.

Full disclaimer, I do not win the magical 52.423581% of my games.  I am ok with my 48.34 %, which turns a profit.  If losing bothers you, perhaps another thread cause I lose a lot.  All my studies mandate flawless bankroll management, discipline, and emotional neutrality.

For me, the key to turning a profit at less than 50 % win percentage, is playing money line dogs (and dogs in general).  So I play dogs, quite abundantly, with careful regard.  Potential plays (in all sports) are identified by finding value between my stat model line and the line offered by the book.  From there several situational angles are considered with more weight depending on sport:

League Trends 

/sport/basketball/ncaab/league-trends/seasontodate (example in case not familiar....all sports on covers have this).  Mostly look at seasonal and ignore the coveted this team wins 100 % of the time on Tuesday's after Haley's comet passes Jupiter if it is higher than 80 degrees in Phoenix.

Form

NCAAM, NBA, NHL, Soccer - Last 5.  NFL, NCAAF - Last 4

Injuries

All sports - Check beat writers for teams on twitter to get info early / fast. 

Home / Away

Heavily weighted in soccer.  Fairly weighted in NCAAM in that a potential play should have proven road / home success.  Considered in other sports in accordance with league trends. 

Common Opponents (college sports), Schedule (back to back / 3 in 4 nights), Motivation (look ahead / revenge), and a few others including reading unbiased matchup previews from multiple sources.

Finally, I look at line movement and try to gauge a sense of what the public is doing.  Lots of talk on the accuracy of this, but it has served me well and I do not deviate from my teachings.  But in a nutshell, if at least 3 review sites have consensus on a team being a public play I will take note.  If split, I may ignore.  As to line movement, I base decisions off the Pinnacle line.  Is the line moving with me, against me, or is it neutral.  Line movement will never make a play in and of itself, but it will eliminate a play.

My hope is this may help those starting, struggling, or lost as I was 18 months ago.  My request is for us all to remain positive.  This is not the way or a better way, it is just the lens I use.  Take it for what it is worth and BOL.

I will be watching this system closely 

probably while smoking some dope leaf , there’s no need , to make a disclaimer don’t bother , everyone knows there’s different ways to make change from a dollar , I get it , even a dominatrix gives a safe word saving you from berating her with a holler , so I’ll alert

the whole forum , the pros , and even the average joes , who blow their whole bankroll , then get manic and explode

I’m sold , on your effort and deft words , and any member that doesn’t remember what you said are definitely deaf nerds

let’s earn , good luck with the rabbit’s foot , and attack like Shaq to the rim dunking these savage crooks……

Thanks for posting this UG.  We need more posts like this here.  Teaching to fish rather than just providing fish.

One thing I would add to your post....

Some kind of objective data that can provide predictive results and predictive lines (and moves).

Everything you describe above fits in to one type of analysis I would call "handicapping".  But I like to look at it as 3 pronged:  handicapping, staking, and data analysis - and all three are very important to long term profit for someone like you who is taking this seriously.

I can't tell you how many times I do my "handicapping" part - similar to what you describe above - but when I run simulations or data analysis - it points in an opposite direction.  I like to think of this as "gut" vs "math".  It is always good to have that foundational objective sounding board that the stats analysis provides.

I have a statistics software that runs a ton of simulations, and provides detailed boiled up stats on my dashboard.  But a great place to start for a beginner is footballoutsiders.  Their stats are adjusted - and are a great tool for beginners and pros alike. 

Just something interesting and timely....  My stats model is showing a very high standard deviation for this SB.   It means that while the average of 1k simulations is the Rams winning by 6, the standard deviation is 8 - which is really high.  What does that tell me?  Well, at first glance it shows that the Rams are a good bet at -4, but more importantly it shows that there is a higher than normal probability that the game might have an outlier score - that might be good to bet at alternative + big money lines.

Anyways, congrats on your pursuit to get better.  You are in the .1%.  The 99.9% are only interested in the winner of the day, and never analyze what they are doing or never even look back on what makes money long term.  You are doing this.  However you are doing this is better than not doing it at all.  Congrats.