Observations and Championship Week ponderings

Friday

C-USA 

JACKSONVILLE ST. (-3') vs Western Kentucky - I'm not reading too much into last week's game between these two, won by the Hilltoppers, 19-17, on Lucas Carneiro's 50 yard field goal with three seconds left. The Gamecocks were already in the title game, but WKU needed a win to get in, and were the more motivated team. BOTH teams will be motivated in this one, but Jack St. may be without starting QB Tyler Huff, who was injured midway through the third quarter last week and never returned. Huff had run for 97 yards on 13 carries in that game, and plays a huge role in their run based offense. These two have played six common opponents, and while the Gamecocks have been the more dominant team (+777 cumulative yards to +24), this game is unplayable without knowing Huff's status.

AAC

Tulane (-5, up from -4') at ARMY - Both teams were in the CFP mix until suffering crushing losses. The previously unbeaten Black Knights were humbled by Notre Dame, 49-14, at Yankee Stadium two weeks ago, and temporarily fell out of the top 25. Last week they experienced a bit of a hangover vs UTSA, trailing 17-16 going into the fourth quarter, before hanging on for a 29-24 win to remain unbeaten in AAC play, and earning the right to host this game. Meanwhile, the Green Wave were on a roll, after two early losses to Kansas St. and Oklahoma, winning eight straight games in dominating fashion, including a 35-0 rout at Navy three weeks ago. But on Thanksgiving Day they ran into a Memphis buzzsaw, losing 34-24, and saw their own CFP hopes go up in smoke. The Tigers dominated that game, outrushing Tulane 236 yards (4.9 YPR) to 57 (3.2) and held the ball for over 39 minutes. I'm not so sure Tulane is over that loss, and they're facing a team that doesn't beat themselves (an FBS low five turnovers lost). Add in the weather factor, where you have a warm weather team playing in freezing conditions, and I think Army might be the play here.

MWC

BOISE ST. (-4, down from -5) vs Unlv - Broncos have won eight straight meetings with the Rebels, including last year's 44-20 rout in the MWC title game, and a 29-24 dog fight earlier this season, both in Las Vegas. The Rebels held Ashton Jeanty to a season low 128 yards and 3.9 YPR in October, but Boise was missing two starters on their offensive line in that one. Everyone is healthy now, and OC Dirk Koetter says this is the healthiest and deepest the line has been all season. Defensively, the Broncos will have their hands full with QB Hajj-Malik Williams, who's passed for 1735 yards with 17 TDs and just four interceptions, while rushing for 768 yards (5.9 YPR) in nine games. He was sacked six times in the earlier meeting, and BSU will need to keep the heat on him here. Meanwhile Boise's Maddux Madsen has thrown for 2556 yards, 21 TDs and just three picks, and rarely gets sacked. Weather could also be a factor in this game. Temps will be close to freezing by kickoff, which doesn't favor the warm weather Rebels. Lean to Boise St. at the risk of sounding like a homer.

@Boisestateand8

Good stuff Boise!  Thanks for your input on this forum!  Much appreciated!  

@BeeRich

@Boisestateand8

 BOL

@mjm1012

Always appreciate the write-ups Boise............

@D-Town

@Boisestateand8

 i was about to say yeah by your user name homer lol, jk anyway to date this Rebel team is far the best I¡¯ve seen since a very long time and coach Odom is the best UNLV has had I expect a great game ill take the points what i wanted to ask regarding the total i like the over in this game. The first half should be slow and Boise what their defense should be able to slow the run what¡¯s your opinion?

From -3.5 to -5 with their QB questionable? What is Vegas up to?:) 

BSU is solid against the run. In the first matchup UNLV had two runs totaling about 100 yards against them, and last week against Oregon St. they allowed an 83 yard TD run, but other than that they've been tough against the run. Pass D is feast or famine. Pass rush has been a constant, but the secondary has been burned a number of times. It's not likely that I'll play this game. I'm nervous enough as it is! Just a hopeful lean in this one. 

@Boisestateand8

Good points, I¡¯m liking the 1H under 27.5 because of the fact they played each other a bit heavy on defense on both sides half Time i think they both go for it

Nice work 8 

@Boisestateand8. Thanks for the write up. 

I'm no authority on totals, but the freezing temps (30¡ă at kickoff) could keep scoring down. Total seems high to begin with. In the last meeting Boise ran off the last eight and a half minutes of the fourth quarter to put it away. 

Train, you're the totals guru. If you're reading this I'd be interested in your opinion on the total in this one.

I've got a weird feeling about this game. Maybe its just me. I feel like UNLV is going to win. Not sure why. Could be because Boise hasn't looked great the past couple of weeks. 

@AJ86

 It's certainly possible. Gonna be cold and foggy tonight. Whoever handles the elements better will come out on top.

Saturday early games

MAC 

Miami OH (-2) vs Ohio U (in Detroit) - The Redhawks won the earlier matchup, 30-20, in mid October, but it wasn't that close. The Bobcats trailed 30-6 before scoring two garbage TDs in the fourth quarter. Since then, Ohio has gone 5-0 SU, ATS, and ITS, outgaining their opponents by 166 yards a game with an average score of 38-11. Miami got off to a 1-4 start, but have won seven straight (5-2 ATS, 7-0 ITS, +136 yards a game), including back to back impressive wins over NIU and Bowling Green to close out the regular season. Tough call in this one, but the Redhawks are battle tested, having played the tougher schedule. Can't go against them here.

Big 12 

Arizona St. (-1') vs Iowa St. ( in Arlington) - First ever meeting between these two. Sun Devils RB Cameron Skattebo is second only to Ashton Jeanty in all purpose yards, averaging 169.6 yards a game with 19 TDs. He's averaging 5.7 yards per rush, and will be going up against one of the worst rush defenses in the conference (allowing over five YPR). Iowa St. counters with QB Rocco Becht, who has passed for over 3000 yards and 20 TDs and has a pair of 1000 yard receivers. But the Cyclones' biggest strength is their pass defense, which ranks as the third best in the nation. That could be a key in this game as Arizona St. will be missing top WR Jordan Tyson, who has 75 catches for 1100 yards and ten TDs. The rest of the ASU receivers have a combined 41 receptions for 634 yards and four TDs. Seems like the game plan for the 'Clones would be to stack the box to at least slow down Skattebo and force Sam Leavitt to work without his top receiver. ASU is 10-2 ATS (7-0 as chalk), but I'm leaning towards Iowa St. here.

SEC 

Texas (-2', up from -2) vs Georgia (in Atlanta) - There's only been three games this season where Georgia has looked like Georgia. One of those games was the earlier matchup in Austin, where the Bulldogs prevailed, 30-15. Georgia took advantage of three Longhorn turnovers in building a 23-0 lead in their convincing win. Texas hasn't lost since, going 5-0 SU and ITS, including last week's dominating 17-7 win at Texas A&M. The 'Horns outgained the Aggies 458 total yards to 248, and outrushed them 240 yards (4.8 YPR) to 102 (3.0). They'll attempt to establish the run game vs a 'Dawg "D" that's given up a whopping 524 yards on the ground (6.2 YPR) in their last two games. Georgia has a bit of a home field advantage here, but how much do they have left in the tank after their 44-42 eight overtime win over rival Georgia Tech?

BOL  on your plays this weekend  @Boisestateand8 

@UglyKidJoe

@Macwestie1

Just a quick note to let you know, I've enjoyed reading your weekly threads.  Even if I disagree with your outcome, I understand and respect the effort, logic, time put into your scribblings.  Thank you.  

@TheBlackKnight

The line has flipped in the Big 12 game with Iowa St. now favored by a point. Still leaning 'Clones but I doubt I'll play it. No play on the other two early games either. Looking at the three night games now and I'll have something up on them a little later. BOL to all!

Saturday night

C-USA 

LOUISIANA (-5, up from -4) vs Marshall - Teams that have hosted their conference championship games this week are 3-0 so far, but the Ragin' Cajuns are no guarantee here. While they are 9-2 SU and ITS vs FBS opponents, both losses came at home, where they're just 2-3 ATS. QB Ben Wooldridge broke his collarbone in the Week 12 home loss to South Alabama, but backup Chandler Fields threw for a combined 511 yards and four TDs in wins over Troy and ULM to close out the regular season. The Thundering Herd have won eight of their last nine after a 1-2 start, and for the season are 9-1-1 ATS (4-0-1 as a dog). But they're just 2-8-1 ITS vs FBS teams and this is their third straight road game, and are off a 35-33 double OT win at JMU. Tough call. 

BIG Ten

Oregon (-3, down from -4) vs Penn St. (in Indianapolis) - Both teams feature outstanding defenses. Nittany Lions are allowing just 14 points, and 266.8 yards per game, while the Ducks are right there at 16.2 and 283.8. Both teams have outstanding QBs, with Drew Allar ranked 11th in QBR and Dillon Gabriel completing 73.5% of his passes. And both teams can run the football. Team speed is where Oregon has an edge on both sides of the ball. They also have a huge edge with their WR corps, especially with Penn St.'s top wideout, Harrison Wallace, questionable. The Lions will have to move the chains behind RBs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen to negate Oregon's pass rush, and win the time of possession battle. I'd like to take Penn St. here but can't ignore James Franklin's putrid 1-12 record vs top five teams.

ACC

Smu (-2', up from -2) vs Clemson (in Charlotte) - The Tiger Paw fell into this game thanks to Miami's loss at Syracuse last week, but they're just 3-7 in their last ten vs ranked foes, and 0-2 this season. Their normally staunch defense has given up 357.2 yards a game, including 150.3 rushing, which isn't horrible, but it's their most in the last ten plus years. Clemson is just 2-5 ATS in their last seven contests. The Mustangs switched starting QBs following a home loss to BYU and it paid off. Kevin Jennings has completed 66.7% of his passes for 2746 yards with 19 TDs and seven interceptions (three of those came at Duke), and SMU is 9-0 SU, 7-2 ATS and 8-1 ITS since he took over the reins. Defensively, they're solid against the run but can be had through the air. Still, they're averaging over 40 points a game and I doubt Clemson can keep up. I like SMU to punch their ticket to the CFP.