2024 Italian Grand Prix 2024 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Changing of the Guard?

Lando Norris is the betting favorite to win the 2024 Italian Grand Prix ahead of qualifying, a position that has been consistently occupied by Max Verstappen. Can the former capitalize or will Max finally get back in the winner's circle?

Shawn Wronka - Contributor at Covers.com
Shawn Wronka ? Betting Analyst
Aug 31, 2024 ? 19:59 ET ? 4 min read
Max Verstsappen Lando Norris F1
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

As the 2024 Formula 1 season has drawn on, Max Verstappen's grip on the top spot has loosened considerably. It seems unlikely that the field will be able to catch him in the Driver's Standings because of how dominant he started the year, but it could be a sign of parity to come.

The field has tightened so much that Formula 1 odds don't have Verstappen positioned as the betting favorite to win the Italian Grand Prix, a race he's taken in two straight years. Instead, Lando Norris was drawing the shortest odds ahead of qualifying, and that edge continued after Norris claimed the pole position on Saturday.

Let's break down the field and favorites before adding our best F1 picks for the 2024 Italian GP, scheduled for Sunday, September 1.

Italian Grand Prix 2024 odds

Driver Pre-qualifying Post-qualifying
McLaren Lando Norris +110 -225
McLaren Oscar Piastri +650 +450
Mercedes George Russell  +1,400 +850

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of 8-31.

Driver Pre-qualifying Post-qualifying
Ferrari Charles Leclerc +1,400 +1,400
Ferrari Carlos Sainz  +2,200 +1,800
Red Bull Max Verstappen +225 +2,200
Mercedes Lewis Hamilton +1,200 +2,200
Red Bull Sergio Perez +6,500 +10,000

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of 8-31.

Driver Pre-qualifying Post-qualifying
Williams Alexander Albon +30,000 +25,000
Aston Martin Fernando Alonso +20,000 +30,000
Haas Nico Hulkenberg +30,000 +40,000
Haas Kevin Magnussen +40,000 +50,000
VCARB Daniel Ricciardo +30,000 +50,000
Aston Martin Lance Stroll +25,000 +60,000
VCARB Yuki Tsunoda +30,000 +60,000
Alpine Pierre Gasly +40,000 +70,000
Alpine Esteban Ocon +40,000 +70,000
Williams Franco Colapinto +50,000 +70,000
Kick Sauber Valtteri Bottas +40,000 +80,000
Kick Sauber Guanyu Zhou +50,000 +80,000

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of 8-31.

Italian Grand Prix 2024 pre-qualifying favorites

And here we are. The gap has been closing between Max Verstappen and Lando Norris on the odds board and now the latter has the shortest odds to win a race before qualifying even happens.

Verstappen still owns a healthy lead in the F1 standings thanks to seven wins, but that is weighted heavily on the earlier portion of the calendar. Verstappen hasn't won any of his last five races, marking his longest winless stretch since 2020. He has only two podium finishes in those events since winning the Spanish GP in late June.

Norris is fresh off a victory at the Dutch GP, which marked his second checkered flag of the season (which also helps account for why he hasn't caught up further to Verstappen). 

McLaren teammate Oscar Piastri is the other driver drawing odds shorter than 10/1. Piastri won the Hungarian GP earlier this year and has finished fourth or better in five consecutive events. He finished 12th at the Italian GP in 2023, which was his first time in the field.

Italian Grand Prix 2024 post-qualifying picks

Race prediction: Lando Norris to win (-200 at BetRivers)

Lando Norris is fresh off the second win of his career and on the still very alive season. He now finds himself just 70 points behind Max Verstappen in the Drivers' standings, with a very realistic chance to cut deeply into that deficit this weekend.

But unlike last weekend, he won't have Verstappen right on his tail at the start of the race—instead, he'll have teammate Oscar Piastri. This development is significant for McLaren, who are now just 30 points behind Red Bull in the Constructors' Championship, with Verstappen and Sergio Perez starting from the seventh and eighth positions.

Although Norris may sport a mixed bag of results in Italy, including eighth (2023) and seventh (2022) place finishes his last two times out, he also secured his first-ever second-place finish back in 2021.

Norris also hasn't let questionable track history get in his way before, seeing as he is fresh off of a Dutch Grand Prix win after having previously never placed better than seventh there.

George Russell to win (+1,000 at FanDuel)

If there is one driver to back at their post-qualification odds not named Lando Norris, it has to be George Russell. 

Russell lacks consistency and has extremely high variance in his results, but his ceiling is unignorable. He surprised everyone with his win at the Austrian Grand Prix and then followed that up with an early retirement and eighth-place dud.

He then crossed the finish line first in Belgium but was disqualified after the race. After the traditional summer break, many were eager to see how Russell would perform, but he came out with a disappointing seventh-place finish.

But as long as Russell continues to show that he is a threat at least every other week, he is worth backing at odds these high.

Total classified drivers Under 17.5 (+300 at FanDuel)

The Italian Grand Prix is quietly a race that takes a lot of victims. Working backwards: there were 16 classified drivers in 2022, 15 in 2021, 16 in 2020, 19 in 2019 (finally an Over!), 16 in 2018, and 18 in 2017 and 2016.

The Over on this prop has hit only twice in the last eight years, and in all but one instance, the Under was covered by multiple drivers.

Italian Grand Prix 2024 starting grid

Position Driver Position Driver
1 McLaren Lando Norris 2 McLaren Oscar Piastri
3 Mercedes George Russell 4 Ferrari Charles Leclerc
5 Ferrari Carlos Sainz 6 Mercedes Lewis Hamilton
7 Red Bull Max Verstappen 8 Red Bull Sergio Perez
9 Williams Alexander Albon 10 Haas Nico Hulkenberg
11 Aston Martin Fernando Alonso 12 VCARB Daniel Ricciardo
13 Haas Kevin Magnussen 14 Alpine Pierre Gasly
15 Alpine Esteban Ocon 16 VCARB Yuki Tsunoda
17 Aston Martin Lance Stroll 18 Williams Franco Colapinto
19 Kick Sauber Valtteri Bottas 20 Kick Sauber Guanyu Zhou

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Previous Italian Grand Prix winners

Year Driver Team
2023 Max Verstappen Red Bull
2022 Max Verstappen Red Bull
2021 Daniel Ricciardo McLaren
2020 Pierre Gasly AlphaTauri
2019 Charles Leclerc Ferrari

Understanding F1 betting odds

The most popular way to bet on Formula 1 odds is by simply picking the winner of a particular race. Other popular F1 betting options include which car/constructor will win and whether or not a particular race car driver will end up on the podium with a Top-3 finish.

F1 race odds usually look like this:

  • Sergio Perez +1,400

This means that on a $100 bet, you'll stand to profit $1,400 if Perez wins that particular race. If one driver is especially dominant, you might see a minus sign (-) ahead of that driver's odds like this:

  • Max Verstappen -120

This means that you would need to bet $120 to win $100 on Verstappen winning the race.

Pages related to this topic

Shawn Wronka - Covers
Betting Analyst

Shawn Wronka is an analytics-based sports bettor who was drawn to analytics at an early age via the stats on the back of sports cards. He began sports betting in 2016, and took an immediate interest in UFC before finding his way towards other major sports.

After years of casual betting, he took an interest in the numbers-based approach and specialized in learning and applying those techniques to niche markets such as player props, the NFL and NBA drafts, and F1. Shawn finds writing a good way to balance the time he spends on numbers, giving him an outlet to paint quantitative edges into qualitative narratives.

A graduate of the University of Wisconsin-Madison, his work has been seen in dozens of publications including the National Post, Financial Post, Calgary Herald, Vancouver Sun, and The Province.

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