Week 15 features the San Francisco 49ers welcoming the Los Angeles Rams to Levi’s Stadium for a pivotal NFC West clash on December 12.
My top NFL picks for the Brock Purdy odds expect the Niners quarterback to have another strong showing against the Rams on Thursday Night Football.
Brock Purdy TNF player prop picks
- Best bet
Over 245.5 passing yards
(-114 at FanDuel) - SGP Pick
Brock Purdy Over 245.5 passing yards
Brock Purdy Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
George Kittle Over 56.5 receiving yards
(+284 at FanDuel)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Brock Purdy TNF prop pick
My best bet
Over 245.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
My analysis
San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy is coming off a monster Week 14 showing at home against the Chicago Bears. He threw for 325 yards and 13.0 yards per attempt while posting his highest PFF passing grades since Week 3, which was conveniently against the Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium.
Purdy threw for 292 yards and a 9.73 YPA in that Week 3 divisional clash, and he now draws the Rams on a short week at Levi’s Stadium for Thursday Night Football.
The Rams have surrendered the second-highest yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks and the fourth-highest EPA per dropback this season. Los Angeles also sports the fifth-lowest PFF coverage grade, and the Rams rank 23rd in pass-rush win rate while allowing a healthy 7.7 aDOT.
Meanwhile, 49ers running back Isaac Guerendo (foot) joins Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason as the latest Niners rusher to succumb to injury. Guerendo got banged up on Sunday and was listed as a non-participant on the estimated practice report the following day.
This game carries a 48.5 O/U and sets up as a potential high-scoring affair, which is another reason I’m backing Purdy to eclipse his passing yards total.
Brock Purdy TNF same-game parlay
Brock Purdy Over 245.5 passing yards
Brock Purdy Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
George Kittle Over 56.5 receiving yards
The Rams are tied for the seventh-most touchdown passes allowed with 23 through 13 games, and Purdy threw for three scores against Los Angeles in Week 3. The injuries at running back should also result in more overall passing plays this week, including in the red zone.
Specifically, I’m anticipating creative looks to create space for tight end George Kittle. The Pro Bowler is coming off the best outing of the season and has recorded 58+ receiving yards or more in eight of 11 games.
I’m not anticipating Los Angeles having a consistent answer for Kittle — especially with the Rams carrying the third-lowest PFF tackle grade in the league.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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