We have another dynamite SEC matchup when Tennessee welcomes Georgia to town on Saturday, November 16.
This could be a de facto college football playoff elimination game for Georgia. That's because, over the weekend, it went to Ole Miss and lost to the Rebels, who also faced an elimination game.
Meanwhile, it was a bye week for Tennessee after they defeated Florida the week before. This is also a significant game for the Vols' playoff hopes, but given they only have one loss, the road is a little more open.
Read on as I break down my early Tennessee vs. Georgia predictions and college football picks.
Tennessee vs Georgia predictions
Early spread lean
Tennessee +9 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
This is a great number, and, for the moment, I won't be betting on it. I lean toward the Tennessee Volunteers, though. If we get to a critical number of 10, I may be more interested in acting on that lean.
It's tough to overcome the mental hurdle of going against the Georgia Bulldogs and Kirby Smart at home in a game that is a must-win when they catch single digits. It's equally as challenging to get through the mental hurdle of taking this Georgia offense to win by more than nine points given the issues they've had this season.
Those issues start with quarterback Carson Beck. There's no Brock Bowers, no Ladd McConkey, and predictably, things have gotten much more difficult for the signal caller in 2024.
Beck has thrown nine interceptions over his last three games and struggled to maintain a 60% passing completion rating during that stretch. The noise from Georgia media has gotten increasingly loud around the quarterback, and it's easy to understand why.
The task against Tennessee's defense won't get any easier, and that's chief among the reasons why I simply can't trust Georgia to cover this number even in such a great spot.
The Vols' defense has posted some pretty incredible numbers this season. It hasn't allowed a team to score more than 20 points this season, and that includes a pretty prolific scoring team in Alabama. You can make the case that the competition hasn't been the best, but the product it's put on film is impressive.
Entering this game, the Vols have posted the fourth-highest havoc rating of any team in college football, which is the most significant stat for this game. With all of Beck's struggles in the background, the last thing you want to face is a team that creates so much havoc.
Georgia has already faced two teams ranking in the Top 5 of such metrics this season. One of those was Kentucky in a game it failed to cover and was quite frankly lucky to win. The other came this weekend against Ole Miss, and you can see how that went. Give me Tennessee as a lean, but it will become actionable if this reaches 10.
Early Over/Under lean
Under 48.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
I feel stronger about the Under. I played it pre-game and in-game during the Georgia/Ole Miss contest, and it's an angle I'll likely aim to grab throughout the rest of the Bulldogs season.
My number here was 44.5. Let's note a few trends; two of the last three games Georgia has played have gone Under, three of the previous four games that Tennessee has played have gone Under, and two straight head-to-head meetings between these two teams have gone Under.
There will always be some hesitation with playing Unders for the Vols, for me at least, given the speed at which they run their offense. They average 74.9 plays per game, the seventh-highest in the country. It will at least be slowed in such a raucous road environment, but it's mainly inconsequential to me backing a lower-scoring game. That's because I trust both defenses, and have doubts about both QBs.
We've talked about Beck; let's discuss the other side briefly.
Nico Lamaleava sits 55th nationally in QBR, and I also don't know how often he's gone and actually won Tennessee a game this season. You could argue Oklahoma, but outside of that, he had an opportunity to do so against a bad Arkansas defense and could not. Here, the task is stern.
The Georgia defense is still the Georgia defense. It is not what it was when it crushed TCU in the national championship two seasons ago, but it is still an excellent unit. Entering this matchup, it ranks 35th in EPA against the pass but has more impressive numbers in third-down success, which is troubling for a Tennessee offense that struggles once it's off schedule.
Tennessee vs Georgia live odds
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