Two teams hot off huge wins in the SEC will meet this afternoon at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium when the Florida Gators host the playoff-hopeful Mississippi Rebels at 12:00 p.m. ET on ABC.
Find out why my Mississippi vs. Florida predictions see the Rebels overmatching the Gators on both sides of the ball as I serve up my best college football picks for Week 13 on November 23.
Mississippi vs Florida prediction and best bet
Who will win Mississippi vs Florida?
The Mississippi ML is sitting at -375 as of Thursday afternoon and the Rebels are deserved big favorites. They just have all the horses in this matchup despite being on the road in the SEC.
The Rebels rank fourth in the country in scoring offense, fifth in scoring defense, second in total offense, and 16th in total defense. They'll find themselves one step closer to the playoffs after a win in the Swamp on Saturday.
My best bet
Mississippi -10.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
Mississippi had one of its biggest wins in modern program history last week by beating Georgia at home, putting it in prime position to make the College Football Playoff. A win here means only the rivalry game with Mississippi State stands between the Rebels and a playoff spot.
Florida is not as desperate. The Gators just beat LSU last week and are now looking good to make a bowl game despite their insanely tough schedule. They just need to win one of their final two games, and next week, they get the dreadful Florida State Seminoles.
This will be Florida’s fourth straight game against a ranked opponent and the fifth of its last sixth, with four of those opponents being ranked in the Top 10. The other three games against the Top 10 teams were all losses by six, 14, and 32 points. This one will likely be a fourth loss and by double digits.
The Rebels have a deadly passing attack with Jaxson Dart and four wide receivers who can hit it big on any given play. Mississippi ranks second in the country in passing offense and the Gators are missing four defensive backs with injury and rank 93rd in the country in passing defense.
Mississippi vs Florida same-game parlay (SGP)
Mississippi -10.5
Under 55.5
Jaxson Dart Over 274.5 passing yards
The Rebels' defense is almost as good as their offense, with only Arkansas and LSU managing to surpass 20 points against them. Florida has been held to 20 or less in four games this season and this is a strong candidate to be number five.
Dart has surpassed 275 yards in all but two games this season. Those two games were Kentucky and Georgia, who both had strong passing defenses at the time of the game. Florida recently allowed both Carson Beck and Quinn Ewers to surpass 300 passing yards.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Mississippi vs Florida odds
Mississippi vs Florida live odds
Mississippi vs Florida opening odds
- Mississippi vs. Florida spread: Florida -6.5
- Mississippi vs. Florida moneyline: Mississippi -400, Florida +310
- Mississippi vs. Florida Over/Under: 55.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Mississippi vs Florida spread and Over/Under analysis
- The spread opened at 6.5 prior to the season and re-opened at 9.5 this week and has climbed to 10.5 as of Thursday afternoon.
- The Rebels are 7-3 against the spread this season.
- The total has also remained basically the same from opening at 55.5. As of Thursday afternoon, 27% of the bets and 66% of the money is on the Under.
- The Under is 8-2 in Ole Miss games this season.
Mississippi vs Florida betting trend to know
Mississippi has covered the spread in eight of its last 12 games. Find more college football betting trends for Mississippi vs Florida.
Mississippi vs Florida game info
| Location: | Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, FL |
| Date: | Saturday, 11-23, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
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