The Clemson Tigers hope to continue a playoff push that may have looked improbable at the start of the season when they match up with the Louisville Cardinals at Memorial Stadium.
Louisville is likely the offense that can most test Clemson outside a potential conference championship matchup with Miami, but my Louisville vs. Clemson predictions like both teams to be able to run the ball here.
Read on for my college football picks for November 2, and don't miss a moment of the action that starts at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Louisville vs Clemson prediction and best bet
My best bet
Phil Mafah Over 49.5 rushing yards + Isaac Brown Over 59.5 rushing yards (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
I've taken varying degrees of bets on this parlay based on how I project the game to flow, how I expect each team to attack, and the defensive weaknesses of each side. You can find alternate combos from +150 to +750 and I dabbled in those. However, this combo is my best bet, and I'd play it to around -130. Let's talk about why.
I settled on Over 59.5 rushing yards for Isaac Brown for the Louisville Cardinals' side of things.
Brown has been quite effective since assuming the primary RB1 role for the Cards. Over halfway through the season, he is the highest-rated freshman RB in the sport by PFF, but the accomplishments don't stop there.
Brown has run for over 100 yards in two of his last four games, has averaged over 7.0 yards per game, and, most importantly, has exceeded this number in every game he's had double-digit carries. He should get double-digit carries here as there will be a significant emphasis on him to do so.
One of those things providing that emphasis is the desire to keep the ball away from a Clemson Tigers offense that has been red-hot and averaged the nation's fourth-best 42 points per game.
Another reason is that the Tigers' rushing defense has yet to be good this year. It ranks just 108th in college football in EPA per rush defense and has allowed over 4.0 yards per carry this season, which is one of the worst marks in the ACC. There's plenty of reason to suggest that Brown can conquer a relatively low number here.
The other side of this is Clemson's Phil Mafah, who has been just as impressive as you've come to expect him to be in 2024.
More importantly, regarding this matchup, he's facing a Louisville team that has struggled against physical runners this season and is coming into this one off of five straight games without a week off. At the same time, Clemson is fresh off a bye week. That spells massive trouble for Louisville.
By the numbers, this is not necessarily a team that has struggled against the run. They are about average in most facets and, at some points, have been well above average. However, this total is relatively low, and Mafah has exceeded it every time he has played this season. I'm hard-pressed to think he doesn't do that here.
That opinion is stronger given he's facing an interior defensive line that has been bullied at times and is likely feeling a heavy weight of attrition coming into this game. I'm making this parlay a two-unit play.
Louisville vs Clemson same-game parlay (SGP)
Phil Mafah Over 49.5 rushing yards
Isaac Brown Over 59.5 rushing yards
Under 62.5
I've added one leg to my best bet for this same-game parlay with the Under of 62.5. It's highly correlated to the above handicap.
This is primarily a projection play. I expect plenty of points here, but I made the total a bit lower at 59.5. Beyond that aspect, though, the desire for both teams to run the ball should do a good job of shortening this game. It certainly helps that three of the last four games for Clemson have gone Under, and this will be played on the Tigers' terms in Death Valley.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Louisville vs Clemson odds
Louisville vs Clemson live odds
Louisville vs Clemson opening odds
- Louisville vs. Clemson spread: Clemson -10.5
- Louisville vs. Clemson moneyline: Louisville +320, Clemson -430
- Louisville vs. Clemson Over/Under: 61.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Louisville vs Clemson spread and Over/Under analysis
- Louisville has covered one FBS spread this season and is 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall.
- Since losing its season opener to Georgia, Clemson has won six straight and nine of its last ten games, dating back to last season.
- Recently, Clemson has been an Under team with three of it's last four games going that way on the total.
Louisville vs Clemson betting trend to know
Clemson has covered the 1H Spread in nine of their last 12 games (+5.75 Units / 44% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Louisville vs Clemson.
Louisville vs Clemson game info
| Location: | Memorial Stadium, Clemson, SC |
| Date: | Saturday, 11-2-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
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