Dreams of the CFP will still be alive when the BYU Cougars visit the Arizona State Sun Devils this afternoon.
Kalani Sitake’s squad needs to bounce back after suffering a loss last week, and my BYU vs. Arizona State predictions expect both offenses to show out on Saturday, November 23.
Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET At Mountain America Stadium in Tempe with the game airing on ESPN.
BYU vs Arizona State prediction and best bet
Who will win BYU vs Arizona State?
The BYU Cougars hold a significant home-field advantage, especially while they’re still relatively new to the Big 12. Therefore, teams are unfamiliar with the road trip, so I’m loath to back them against the spread on the road against a tough opponent.
The Cougars were benefitting from unsustainable turnover luck, and that came crashing to a halt in Week 12 when they lost to Kansas and finished -1 in turnover differential.
The Arizona State Sun Devils protect the ball (just seven turnovers all year) while controlling the clock and converting third downs at the country's 11th-highest rate (47.1%), making this a tough matchup for BYU.
My best bet
Pick: Over 48.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
This total comes in a few points lower than expected, so I’ll bite and snap up the Over. BYU has been an Over team all year at 7-3 O/U while Arizona State is 3-1-1 O/U at home — and there’s a lot to like about both offenses.
The Cougars average 31.6 points per game and get strong quarterback play out of Jake Retzlaff. The running back room hasn’t been healthy all year — but it is now with LJ Martin and Hinckley Ropati providing a nice one-two punch — and receivers Chase Roberts and Darius Lassiter have combined for 1,235 yards with eight touchdowns.
Aaron Roderick’s offense will need to righten the ship quickly after back-to-back down performances against Utah and Kansas. One would think Roderick comes prepared with his best game plan in what’s arguably the biggest game of the Sitake era in Provo.
The Cougars have been able to drum up big plays consistently, ranking 30th in explosiveness, giving them an edge against a Sun Devils defense that checks in at 71st in explosiveness, so expect to see several chunk gains on Saturday.
Kenny Dillingham’s team has been on fire during his second season in Tempe. The offense ranks 13th in success rate and has been a wagon, moving the chains with star running back Cameron Skattebo (1,522 scrimmage yards, 13 touchdowns) and beating teams through the air with Jordyn Tyson (833 receiving yards, nine touchdowns).
The Sun Devils will find success with Skattebo against a Cougars defense that ranks 99th in EPA per rush, 89th in rushing success rate, and 85th in rushing explosiveness. The defensive line will likely be outmanned — it ranks 72nd in line yards (18th for ASU), 77th in stuff rate (34th for ASU), and 90th in front-seven havoc (21st for ASU).
This doesn’t necessarily project to be a barn burner, but we do have two effective offenses squaring off in a game with a low total. Good offense beats good defense in today’s modern era of college football, and that’s the case for this Big 12 showdown in Week 13.
BYU vs Arizona State same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 48.5
Cameron Skattebo Over 84.5 rushing yards
Chamon Metayer anytime touchdown
Skattebo sat out Arizona State’s game against UCF with a shoulder sprain but returned to the field a week ago against Kansas State and totaled 117 scrimmage yards against a very stout Wildcats rush defense.
The Sun Devils hold a significant advantage in the trenches, according to the metrics, and Skattebo is another week removed from his injury, so I expect a big day on the ground.
The bulldozing back is averaging 119.3 rushing yards per game, so this number is coming in at a steep discount. He’s one of the country’s most productive players and should bring his “A” game in a marquee matchup.
Sun Devils tight end Chamon Metayer continues to be a big part of this offense, catching a touchdown in two straight games. Tyson and Skattebo do essentially everything for this offense, but there’s room for another impact skill player, and the talented TE has fulfilled that role lately.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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BYU vs Arizona State odds
BYU vs Arizona State live odds
BYU vs Arizona State opening odds
- BYU vs. Arizona State spread: Arizona State -3.5
- BYU vs. Arizona State moneyline: BYU +145, Arizona State -175
- BYU vs. Arizona State Over/Under: 48.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
BYU vs Arizona State spread and Over/Under analysis
- Both teams have been undervalued in the betting market. Arizona State is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games while BYU is 9-3 ATS in its last 12.
- BYU has won five straight road games, but Arizona State has won five straight home games.
- Arizona State is 7-4 O/U against the 1H total in its last 11 games overall while BYU is 5-1 O/U in its last six away games.
- According to our Covers Consensus tool, 56% of users are backing the BYU spread while 64% expect the total to go Over 48.5 points.
BYU vs Arizona State betting trend to know
BYU is 5-1 O/U in its last six road games. Find more college football betting trends for BYU vs Arizona State.
How to watch BYU vs Arizona State
| Location: | Mountain America Stadium, Tempe, AZ |
| Date: | Saturday, 11-23, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
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