College basketball is back, and we have a great matchup to welcome us when the Gonzaga Bulldogs face off against the Baylor Bears in a Top 10 battle.
The Bulldogs made a nice run in the NCAA Tournament last season, and my Baylor vs. Gonzaga predictions expect the plenty of points from the home side in the season opener.
Read more in my college basketball picks for Monday, November 4.
My best bet
Gonzaga team total Over 81.5 (-120 at bet365)
My analysis
It’s funny the first college basketball preview I’m writing this season features my national champion pick in Gonzaga. What’s not to like?
Unlike some teams that receive preseason accolades from returning the bulk of a very good team, the Bulldogs added key pieces like Khalif Battle and Michael Ajayi.
The thing that will stop Gonzaga is its defense, but luckily we won’t have to worry about it here as we take Gonzaga’s team total of Over 81.5. Most analytical sites project Gonzaga scoring below this number, but I disagree.
With a projected possession total of just around 70, I’m projecting a total of 84 points for the Bulldogs, and that’s before you factor in the Zags being the likely benefactor of late-game fouling.
To begin the season, I’m quite firm on two things regarding these two teams: I think Gonzaga has the best (or second-best) offense in college basketball, and I don’t think the defense of Baylor has improved nearly enough to slow Gonzaga down — particularly around the rim.
According to hoop-math, Baylor finished last season allowing 67% shooting at the rim, the worst in D1 basketball. I don’t think the Bears have done much to improve in this regard, either.
The addition of Miami transfer Norchard Omier is not one I would define as rim protection, and Miami wasn’t the best in this regard last season. That’s a scary proposition against one of the most office big men in the sport, Graham Ike. Thus, we should have a regular method for Gonzaga to get some easy buckets in the halfcourt.
If there are arguments about the best offense in college hoops, it’s hard to believe there would be some about who's the best in transition. The Zags finished first and second nationally last season in about any transition offensive metric you can imagine. This is another area of concern.
Baylor wasn’t an effective transition defense last season, finishing in the 45th percentile nationally. However, it’ll face an interesting dynamic though. The Bears will want to play at a quick tempo to keep their offensive flow going, which will come with their transition defense being exploited.
Baylor vs Gonzaga same-game parlay
Gonzaga team total Over 81.5
Graham Ike 15+ points
VJ Edgecombe 15+ points
Nolan Hickman 2+ threes
Points, points, and more points. That’s the story of this same-game parlay.
If Baylor doesn’t elect to play some zone occasionally, Graham Ike will score 20 points with relative ease, given the Bears' issues defending at the rim. Still, even if they don’t, this seems like an easy hurdle to clear for a big who averaged nearly 17 per game last season.
VJ Edgecombe is a certified bucket getter. What I like most about this bet is it should be conducive to the game's flow. I mentioned earlier we'll likely see plenty of transition opportunities in this one. Explosive transition scoring is exactly what Edgecombe was lauded for as a five-score recruit.
Wrapping up things is Nolan Hickman to knock down two threes for the Zags. He’s the most proven shooter on this team and will be the one who benefits the most if we see Scott Drew throw out a 2-3 zone.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Baylor vs Gonzaga odds
Baylor vs Gonzaga live odds
Baylor vs Gonzaga opening odds
- Spread: Baylor +3.5 (-110) | Gonzaga -3.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Baylor +140 | Gonzaga -165
- Over/Under: Over 156.5 (-110) | Under 156.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Baylor vs Gonzaga betting trend to know
Gonzaga has hit the first-ha;f moneyline in 16 of their last 19 games at home (+10.50 Units / 4% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Baylor vs. Gonzaga.
How to watch Baylor vs Gonzaga
| Location: | Spokane Arena, Spokane, WA |
| Date: | Monday, 11-4-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 11:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
Baylor vs Gonzaga key injuries
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