The New York Knicks and Houston Rockets are two talented teams that have had complicated starts to the season, sitting at 3-2 and 3-3, respectively. After a couple of much-needed wins to get back on track, the Knicks will enter Monday’s game in Houston as the favorites — looking to send the Rockets’ record at home tumbling to 1-3.
My Knicks vs. Rockets predictions have the offense getting the better of the defense tonight as my free NBA picks are siding with the Over on November 4.
Knicks vs Rockets prediction
My best bet
Over 217.5 (-110 at bet365
My analysis
The Houston Rockets have been perfectly symmetrical this season, ranking 11th in efficiency on both ends of the court. With that said, this defense was one of the better units in the league a year ago and has started off the season a bit worse than where they left off, ranking 23rd in 3-point defense according to Cleaning the Glass.
That’s a troubling thought, considering the Rockets have given up looks from deep at the 13th-highest rate in the league to this point and will now have to deal with a New York Knicks offense that ignites with the outside shot.
New York may be taking the bulk of its shots from the mid-range, but it leads the league in 3-point shooting heading into this one with well over 40% of its looks falling and is coming off a blowout win over the Detroit Pistons where it cashed in on 47.4% of its looks from the arc.
Making matters worse, the Knicks have made a quick charge up the rebounding leaderboard after getting off to a poor start against the Boston Celtics, collecting 52% of available boards in their last four games to push into the top 10 and pass the Rockets, who sit in 11th place.
Steven Adams is still working his way back from injury, playing limited minutes in two games and carrying a questionable tag into this one as the team continues to ease him back into the lineup. That should all but guarantee that the battle on the boards goes to the Knicks, who should already have a discernable edge here from the outside.
I expect big things out of this offense, but New York’s defense could look out-matched by Alperun Sengun and a strong Rockets frontcourt on defense. It’s been one of the worst sides in the league at defending the rim, and Houston has been peppering its bigs this season with the eight-highest rate of shots in the league coming at the rim.
Both of these teams play at an incredibly slow pace, but with each offense in a good spot, I think we have to give serious consideration to the Over.
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Knicks vs Rockets same-game parlay
Over 217.5
Alperen Sengun Over 17.5 Points
Karl-Anthony Towns Over 1.5 threes
The Rockets may rank 28th in field goal percentage at the rim according to Cleaning the Glass, but they’ve been taking a large number of shots down low and will have the chance to go at a Knicks frontcourt that has really struggled to defend this season, even if it hasn’t been challenged all that much with a low number of shots against it.
The Knicks are still incredibly thin in the frontcourt with the departure of Isaiah Hartenstein and injuries to Mitchell Robinson and Precious Achiuwa, so I think there’s plenty of reason to believe in Sengun to go for 18 here — something he did in both games against the Knicks a year ago.
He may have just one 18-point night through six games, but the matchup is right and the volume has also been there for Sengun.
I like the man who will be tasked with guarding him, too, to have a fruitful night from outside against a Rockets team that’s had issues defending the 3. He’s now hit multiple 3-pointers in three of his last four, reaching a season-high in looks from outside in consecutive games with five attempts against Miami and six against Detroit. The Knicks brought Karl-Anthony Towns in to shoot 3s, and it appears he’s finally finding his way into this offense.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Knicks vs Rockets odds
Knicks vs Rockets live odds
Knicks vs Rockets opening odds
- Spread: New York -4.5 | Houston +4.5
- Moneyline: New York -190 | Houston +145
- Over/Under: Over 219 | Under 219
Odds courtesy of bet365
Knicks vs Rockets spread and Over/Under analysis
- Bettors have been lining up to back the home underdogs here, with the spread moving as low as 1.5 points before leveling back out at Knicks -2 on Monday morning.
- The total bounced between 218.5 and 219.5 points early on before taking a dive to 217.5 on Monday morning and sticking right there for most of the day.
Knicks vs Rockets trend
The Houston Rockets have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 19 of their last 28 games at home (+12.60 Units / 31% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Knicks vs. Rockets.
Knicks vs Rockets game info
| Location: | Toyota Center, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Monday, 11-4-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:45 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBA League Pass |
Knicks vs Rockets latest injuries
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