It could all end tonight when the New York Yankees and Cleveland Guardians meet in Game 5 of the ALCS.
New York took care of business last night despite the Guardians' multiple attempts to mount a comeback. The win continued New York's impressive dominance over Cleveland, as they've won eight of the last 10 meetings between the two teams.
I'm returning to the same play I had in Game 1, when Carlos Rodon made his ALCS debut for the Yankees, expecting runs to pile on the board.
Find out more in my Yankees vs. Guardians predictions and MLB picks for Saturday, October 19. Plus, check out our favorite Yankees vs. Guardians props before first pitch!
Yankees vs Guardians prediction
Who will win Yankees vs Guardians Game 5?
This is likely the only instance that the Guardians have had or will have a starting pitching advantage in this series. Consequently, I'm taking them to win the game. Carlos Rodon showed more poise in his second appearance this postseason, but the metrics don't back him up showing that again.
Making that prospect even more dubious is that this start will come on the road in front of a vivacious crowd.
My Yankees vs Guardians best bet
Over 7.5
(+100 at BetMGM)
My analysis
I played the Over 7.5 in Game 1 of this series and it landed on 7. I viewed that as a little unlucky, and it's done nothing to reduce my projection of nearly nine runs here. I'm making the Over 7.5 my best bet.
There is a narrative and eye test that plays a part here. After Carlos Rodon's first postseason start against the Kansas City Royals, in which he allowed four earned runs in a loss, he acknowledged an issue, but so did many former Yankee greats.
"Carlos needs to control his emotions," former Yankee Alex Rodriguez said on a Fox Sports live telecast. "In the first inning, I thought it was too much when I was watching it."
He was right; Rodon has acknowledged it multiple times throughout his career.
In his second appearance, one that came at home, he was much better from an emotional standpoint and pitched potentially one of the best games of his career, given the stakes. I'm dubious that he keeps those emotions in check for a second straight start though, particularly on the road.
The matchup isn't exactly the best either. The hard-hit ball has been a big issue for him this season, with a barrel rate and a hard-hit rate in the Bottom 10% of the sport. The Cleveland Guardians are well built to key on those faults, even with Jose Ramirez coming into this game struggling.
On the other side is Tanner Bibee. When he's been good in his career, he's been really good. However, he's rarely been able to stay healthy, and in this postseason, he just hasn't looked right.
Bibee has pitched three times this postseason and has yet to make it past four innings. That includes the first go-around against the New York Yankees in Game 2, when he lasted barely over an inning.
With all that said, we should see something better from Bibee here, which is why I picked Cleveland to win. Part of that is based on the fact that if he weren't healthy, he wouldn't be starting in an elimination game. Despite that, the combo of the Yankees hitting him well in the past and both of these bullpens being fairly taxed means runs should come.
Because I dislike Rodon in this spot, I'm not projecting us needing much from the Yankees offense. That's an excellent spot, given they've been the most consistent scoring group in the playoffs.
Yankees vs Guardians same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 7.5
Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 total basesa
Ramirez gets going tonight. Overall, he's struggled in the postseason, but I expect him to show up in an elimination game spot at home. I'm pairing him to go Over 1.5 total bases with my best bet.
There are few batters you'd like to face less than Ramirez when you have a hard-hit problem. I'll back him to seize on Rodon's weaknesses tonight.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Yankees vs Guardians odds
Yankees vs Guardians live odds
Yankees vs Guardians opening odds
- Moneyline: New York -120 | Cleveland -105
- Run line: New York -1.5 (+150) | Cleveland +1.5 (-185)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Yankees vs Guardians moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Yankees are 6-4 over their last 10 games, which has resulted in a small net loss for bettors during that time span.
- The Guardians are 4-6 across the last 10 games, which has lost bettors nearly four units in that period.
- The total between these two teams has gone Over in six of the last 10 matchups.
Yankees vs Guardians trend
The Over is 6-3 in the Guardians' last nine games. Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Yankees.
Yankees vs Guardians Game 5 info
| Location: | Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH |
| Date: | Saturday, 10-19-2024 |
| First pitch: | 8:08 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TBS |
| Guardians starting pitcher: | Tanner Bibee (2024 postseason: 0-1, 3.60 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Carlos Rodon (2024 postseason: 1-1, 4.66 ERA) |
Yankees vs Guardians latest injuries
Yankees vs Guardians weather
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