There's no calm before the storm on the day before the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs, as over 100,000 people will crowd the grounds when the 150th Kentucky Oaks takes place at 5:51 p.m. ET.
The Oaks is similar to the Derby in that the race is limited to three-year-olds, only the Oaks is restricted to female horses. It's also run at 1 1/8-miles rather than 1 1/4-miles.
Which filly will be wearing the lilies when the dust settles, and which runners offer the best value to win, place, and show? Join me as I offer my Kentucky Oaks picks and predictions for Friday, May 3.
Kentucky Oaks Predictions and Picks: Win, Place & Show
Liking the track and getting the right trip are imperative to a horse's chances in the Kentucky Oaks, and Thorpedo Anna ticks both of those boxes.
Best Bet: Thorpedo Anna to win (+500 at FanDuel Racing)
Win Prediction: Thorpedo Anna (5-1)
Thorpedo Anna looked well on her way to superstardom off two runaway wins to begin her career, including one at Churchill Downs, before settling for second with a somewhat troubled trip in her stakes debut in last November's Grade II Golden Rod. Something might have gone amiss there, as she didn't race again until March 30, when she took the Grade II Fantasy Stakes at Oaklawn by open lengths, beating a well-regarded West Omaha in the process.
Thorpedo Anna retains the services of jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. here, and her final tune-up work at Churchill was a sharp one. Trainer Ken McPeek has placed second in the Oaks three times, but this might be the year he gets over the hump.
Place Prediction: Tarifa (7-2)
Tarifa has lost only one race in her five-start career, and it came in her only try at Churchill Downs. It's difficult to find an excuse for that performance, and that's why I'm hesitant to back her to win as the betting favorite in my free betting picks.
The good news for Tarifa fans is that she trained well in her most recent five-furlong drill over this course. Preeminent trainer Brad Cox, a multiple Eclipse Award winner who's taken the Oaks twice and has three runners in the Kentucky Derby odds, names Flavien Prat to ride Tarifa once more. Prat guided the daughter of Bernardini home first in both the Grade II Rachel Alexandra and the Grade II Fair Grounds Oaks this year.
Show Prediction: Ways and Means (5-1)
Ways and Means has yet to enjoy a clean trip in each of her first three starts and has a tendency to come away slow from the gate. That's not ideal in any race, especially when competing in a crowded field, but her best chance of winning the Kentucky Oaks could be by laying back and picking off the tired frontrunners late.
The Chad Brown pupil has run only once in 2024, settling for second in the Grade II Gulfstream Park Oaks after holding the lead in the final furlong. Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. sent her into the six-path to make her late run, and No. 12 Power Squeeze was able to beat her with a better-timed ride under Daniel Centeno. Tyler Gaffalione picks up in the mount on Ways and Means on Friday, and he knows the Churchill course as well as any rider in this field.
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Kentucky Oaks odds, field, and info
- Race: Churchill Race 11
- Post time: 5:51 p.m. ET
- TV: USA
| Post | Horse | Track odds |  |
 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SCR | OTB | OTB | |
| 2 | Gin Gin | 30-1 | +3,000 | +4,000 |
| 3 | Where's My Ring | 15-1 | +1,500 | +1,400 |
| 4 | Regulatory Risk | 20-1 | +2,000 | +3,300 |
| 5 | Thorpedo Anna | 5-1 | +500 | +700 |
| 6 | Lemon Muffin | 30-1 | +3,000 | +2,500 |
| 7 | Fiona's Magic | 30-1 | +3,000 | +3,300 |
| 8 | Tarifa | 7-2 | +350 | +300 |
| 9 | Everland | 30-1 | +3,000 | +2,000 |
| 10 | Into Champagne | 30-1 | +3,000 | +4,000 |
| 11 | Ways and Means | 5-1 | +500 | +700 |
| 12 | Power Squeeze | 12-1 | +1,200 | +800 |
| 13 | Just F Y I | 9-2 | +450 | +500 |
| 14 | Leslie's Rose | 4-1 | +400 | +500 |
| 15 | Our Pretty Woman | 15-1 | +1,500 | +1,400 |
| 16 | SCR | OTB | OTB |
Odds as of 5-3-2024.
Horses in the Kentucky Oaks field
No. 1 Tapit Jenallie (30-1)
Long shot Tapit Jenallie is winless over her last four starts, finishing well behind Thorpedo Anna and Lemon Muffin in her only two graded stakes races to date.
No. 2 Gin Gin (30-1)
Gin Gin has raced seven times to date and effectively runs the same race every time from a speed-figure perspective. She'll need to improve considerably off her distant third-place effort in the Grade III Gazelle Stakes.
No. 3 Where's My Ring (15-1)
Where's My Ring went off favored in the Gazelle despite being an 0-for-7 maiden and won easily. She's certainly improved in her sophomore season but this will be a step up in class.
No. 4 Regulatory Risk (20-1)
Regulatory Risk showed limitations in both distance and ability prior to running second in the Gazelle at 19-1. The blinkers come off, which could keep her relaxed off what figures to be a hot pace under Jose Ortiz.
No. 5 Thorpedo Anna (5-1)
Thorpedo Anna's lone loss in four career starts came off a somewhat troubled journey in the Golden Rod. She could be sitting on a career-best effort in her second start off the bench.
No. 6 Lemon Muffin (30-1)
Lemon Muffin pulled off a 28-1 stunner in the Grade III Honeybee to break her maiden, then completely misfired in the Fantasy. Even if she runs back to her Honeybee effort, it might not be enough to hit the board.
No. 7 Fiona's Magic (30-1)
Fiona's Magic was able to wire the Grade II Davona Dale before running a clunker in the Gulfstream Park Oaks. She has to make some significant gains in the speed-figure department to have a shot.
No. 8 Tarifa (7-2)
But for that dud of an effort at Churchill last November, Tarifa might have been a clear-cut favorite rather than a mild one in the Kentucky Oaks. The Fair Grounds Oaks winner could sit an ideal stalking trip.
No. 9 Everland (30-1)
Everland might be an interesting long shot play for some off her fast-closing Bourbonette Oaks win as she makes her dirt debut, but her two works over this course were very slow.
No. 10 Into Champagne (30-1)
Into Champagne is hoping that a change of scenery can help her turn the tables on Fiona's Magic, Power Squeeze, and Ways and Means, who beat her in her last two starts at Gulfstream. Unfortunately, she has a sprint pedigree through-and-through and has yet to win a route race.
No. 11 Ways and Means (5-1)
Ways and Means has gone off the odds-on favorite in each of her first three starts, so she might offer horse racing betting value from that perspective on Friday as the potential third-choice. A clean trip might be all she needs to score.
No. 12 Power Squeeze (12-1)
Power Squeeze has won four straight, taking a drastic step forward in speed figures in the Gulfstream Park Oaks last time out. We'll see if she can bring her improved form up north from Florida.
No. 13 Just F Y I (9-2)
Just F Y I was a perfect 3-for-3 as a juvenile and was crowed champion two-year-old filly after her triumph in the Breeders' Cup odds. Her comeback was delayed due to a fever and she was run down by Leslie's Rose in a loaded renewal of the Grade I Ashland at Keeneland. Can she reverse the result with the rust shaken off?
No. 14 Leslie's Rose (4-1)
Leslie's Rose was dull in the Davona Dale following two wins to kick off her career, but she bounced back in a big way in the Ashland last time out. Irad Ortiz Jr. will try to work out the winning trip from this wide draw.
No. 15 Our Pretty Woman (15-1)
Our Pretty Woman is an also-eligible and will only run if one of the first 14 entrants scratch (withdraw) on Friday morning. She figures to inject speed into what already figures to be a race chock-full of it, but she wasn't all that far behind Tarifa in the Fair Grounds Oaks.
No. 16 Candied (20-1)
Candied is an also-eligible and will only run if two of the first 15 entrants scratch (withdraw) on Friday morning. The Todd Pletcher trainee has run just once since placing third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies, splitting the field of eight in the Ashland. Improvement and a perfect trip could land her a share, but the win might be too ambitious.
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Kentucky Derby betting
After making your Kentucky Oaks bets, dive into my extensive coverage of the 150th running of the Kentucky Derby. I examine the latest Kentucky Derby odds and look at every single horse running in the Kentucky Derby and their post positions for the Kentucky Derby.
