Week 12 of the NFL season featured a myriad of high-scoring matchups, with 10 of the 13 games topping the number. Eight of these games saw at least 48 combined points, while six of them saw 53 or more combined points.
Week 13 looks like a competitive one as only two of the games have spreads higher than seven points, and we’ll get them out of the way on Thanksgiving and Black Friday. At the time of this writing on Wednesday afternoon, we have a whopping seven games with spreads of three points or less.
Even after the eruption of Overs last week, oddsmakers aren’t expecting a lot of fireworks this week. In fact, only Eagles vs. Ravens has a total north of 50 points.
Check out my favorite NFL betting trends for the entire Week 13 slate. Best of luck and Happy Thanksgiving to you and your family!
Best NFL Week 13 betting trends
Bears vs Lions
The trend: The Lions are 19-7 ATS as a favorite since the start of last season
We’re still waiting on that letdown spot for the Detroit Lions. They rolled to another easy win last week, beating the Colts 24-6 as a seven-point favorite, and Detroit will look to keep dominating as a nine-point favorite on Thursday. If you’re scared of the big number, keep in mind that the Lions have scored an average of 42 points the last two times they were favored by more than nine points.
See all Bears vs Lions trends for Week 13.
Giants vs Cowboys
The trend: The Cowboys have allowed an average of 39.1 ppg over their last six home games
This out-of-control pattern goes back to the Dallas Cowboys' playoff loss against the Packers and includes three separate instances of an opponent scoring 44 or more points. The idea of taking the New York Giants to go over their team total of 16.5 might be terrifying for some, but keep in mind they’ve topped this in all four of their road games this season.
See all Giants vs Cowboys trends for Week 13.
Dolphins vs Packers
The trend: The Packers are 16-5 ATS in the first quarter over their last 21 games
Fast starts have become part of the Green Bay Packers' DNA. Their defense has been especially stingy to open games, with just 2.5 first-quarter points allowed this season (second-best in the NFL). Green Bay is a -0.5 favorite on the first-quarter spread.
See all Dolphins vs Packers trends for Week 13.
Raiders vs Chiefs
The trend: The Raiders have gone Over their team total in four straight games
The Las Vegas Raiders are getting zero respect with a team total of just 13.5 points, a total they've eclipsed in nine of their last 10 games. Meanwhile, the Kansas City Chiefs are starting to take their foot off the gas, evidenced by going down to the wire with a Panthers team that dropped 27 points on them. I’ll plug my nose and take a shot on the Over.
See all Raiders vs Chiefs trends for Week 13.
Texans vs Jaguars
The trend: The Texans are 9-2 SU after a loss since the start of last season
The Houston Texans suffered an ugly loss to the Titans as an eight-point favorite last week, and if recent history is any indication, they’ll learn their lesson and bounce back. They’re favored by four points, or you can take them on the moneyline at -185 and include them in your parlay.
See all Texans vs Jaguars trends for Week 13.
Chargers vs Falcons
The trend: The Chargers are 8-2-1 ATS in the first half this season
We have some extreme contrast in this matchup, with the Los Angeles Chargers ranking first in first-half points allowed at 5.7, while the Atlanta Falcons sit 31st with an average of 15.1 first-half points surrendered. Even more impressive is that the Chargers are coughing up just 3.4 first-half points on the road. You can grab Los Angeles on the 1H spread at -0.5.
See all Chargers vs Falcons trends for Week 13.
Cardinals vs Vikings
The trend: The Cardinals are 0-11 SU lifetime in Minnesota
This isn’t a trend to base a bet around, but it's an interesting historical fact that dates back to 1991 and includes the Arizona Cardinals going 2-7-2 ATS. The most recent game came in 2022 — a 34-26 Minnesota Vikings victory where Kyler Murray threw two interceptions. The Vikings will try to keep the streak alive as a 3.5-point favorite.
See all Cardinals vs Vikings trends for Week 13.
Titans vs Commanders
The trend: The Titans are 0-7 ATS after a win since the start of last season
The Tennessee Titans may have picked up an improbable win last week in Houston, but don't expect them to follow that up with another competitive performance based on their recent history in this spot. The Washington Commanders are favored by 5.5 points and have gone a respectable 5-2 ATS as a favorite.
See all Titans vs Commanders trends for Week 13.
Colts vs Patriots
The trend: The Patriots are 2-11-2 ATS in their last 14 games as a home underdog
How times have changed for the New England Patriots, who went six years between 2014 and 2020 without being home pups. They’re currently a 2.5-point underdog against the Indianapolis Colts, who are 7-2 ATS as a favorite since the start of last season. Maybe Jerod Mayo can get a spark out of his team by calling them soft again.
See all Colts vs Patriots trends for Week 13.
Steelers vs Bengals
The trend: The Over has hit in four straight Bengals’ home games
Not a very sexy trend here by any means, but potentially an actionable one with the total sitting at 47.5 points. Three of these four games were extremely high-scoring, with the Cincinnati Bengals and their opponent combining for 65, 79, and 71 points. On a related note, the Pittsburgh Steelers have eclipsed the Over in four straight road games.
See all Steelers vs Bengals trends for Week 13.
Seahawks vs Jets
The trend: The Jets are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog
The market is finally adjusting to the New York Jets, shifting them from a four-point home favorite against the Colts to a two-point underdog against the Seattle Seahawks. It’s a significant swing, but a necessary one as New York is also 1-7 ATS in its last eight games, while the Seahawks are starting to peak after back-to-back wins over the 49ers and Cardinals.
See all Seahawks vs Jets trends for Week 13.
Rams vs Saints
The trend: The Rams are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games played in December
Stupid trend? Maybe, but also, maybe not! Would it be so surprising that a highly respected coach like Sean McVay has his teams playing at a very competitive level during the stretch run of the season? One of these December covers came last season against the Saints, a game where the Los Angeles Rams led 30-7 before ultimately winning 30-22. LA is now favored by 2.5 points.
See all Rams vs Saints trends for Week 13.
Buccaneers vs Panthers
The trend: These teams are a combined 18-4 to the first half Over this season
This has been a fantastic spot for the Carolina Panthers, who’ve gone Over the first quarter total in 10 of their 11 games. Each of these defenses has been really bad in the first half as they rank 28th and 32nd in first-half points allowed, while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are tied for second in first-half points, resulting in their first halves averaging 28.5 combined points. This game has a 1H total of 23.5.
See all Buccaneers vs Panthers trends for Week 13.
Eagles vs Ravens
The trend: Baltimore is 11-4 SU in the second half over their last 15 games
Dating back to last season, the Baltimore Ravens have been especially strong in the second half. If you think the trend of strong second halves carries into this game, you can take them on the second-half moneyline at -130.
See all Eagles vs Ravens trends for Week 13.
49ers vs Bills
The trend: The Bills are 9-2 to the Over on their team totals this season
This includes going a perfect 5-0 at home, where the Buffalo Bills are averaging 35 points per game. Meanwhile, the San Francisco 49ers defense has struggled on the road, allowing an average of 26.5 points per game. Buffalo’s team total for this game is set at 26.5, and it should also be noted that Buffalo is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games following a bye.
See all 49ers vs Bills trends for Week 13.
Browns vs Broncos
The trend: The Browns haven’t covered the spread in consecutive games this season
Although the Cleveland Browns are coming off an upset win over Pittsburgh, consistency has been an issue for this team. In all three games after covering the spread this season, they’ve failed to clear 15 points. The Denver Broncos, who are 5-1 ATS in their last six games, are listed at -5.5.
See all Browns vs Broncos trends for Week 13.
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