The final week of the regular season has arrived and that means it's time to dive into the best play prop picks available for Saturday’s slate of games.
I'm backing Auburn’s Cam Coleman to stay hot while focusing on two other undervalued players. Read on for my three favorite player props in my Week 14 college football picks for Saturday, November 30.
Best college football player for Week 14
- Cam Coleman 50+ receiving yards (-105 at DraftKings)
- Sawyer Robertson 225+ passing yards (-110 at DraftKings)
- Josh Kelly 70+ receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Picks made on 11-29 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
College football player props for Week 14
Prop bet #1: Cam Coleman Prop: 50+ receiving yards
It’s been quite the coming-out party for Auburn Tigers wide receiver Cam Coleman. All the true freshman has done in his last two games is catch 15 passes for 228 yards and five touchdowns.
The talent is there with Coleman, a freak athlete who no one is disputing can do special things on the football field. The production hadn’t been there to match for parts of the year, but that’s all changed lately and he’s now a crucial part of the offense.
Expect Coleman to continue to be featured in the Iron Bowl against the Alabama Crimson Tide. The Tide’s defense has performed fine this year but the corners don’t inspire a ton of confidence, with the secondary ranking 87th in passing explosiveness allowed.
The former five-star recruit leads the Tigers in targets (17) across the last two games and has taken them for a robust 3.30 yards per route run. Those are the kind of numbers you’d expect from an experienced vet or established star, but Coleman has put those up as just a young pup.
Auburn’s offense has been better overall than it has been given credit for, ranking 35th in EPA per play and 37th in success rate. The Tigers should move the ball a bit in this matchup and I’m betting on Coleman to be a part of that.
The books have set his receiving yardage prop at 50 for Week 14. He’s put forth back-to-back 100-yard performances so this number feels like a discount.
Prop bet #2: Sawyer Robertson 225+ passing yards
Baylor Bears quarterback Sawyer Robertson has been terrific this season, completing 61.5% of his passes for 2,316 yards and 22 touchdowns with seven interceptions. His insertion into the starting lineup has helped lead a turnaround for the 7-4 Bears, who are averaging 33.7 points per game on offense.
Robertson’s passing yardage prop is set at 225 for this weekend’s matchup against the Kansas Jayhawks. Let’s dive in.
He’s eclipsed this number in five of his last seven games, averaging 264.7 passing yards. That number seems closer to an accurate number than the deflated one offered by the books, so we’re snapping up the Over.
Kansas isn’t a scary defense overall, sitting 91st in EPA per play, 87th in success rate, and 101st in explosiveness. The secondary has some talented players but takes too many gambles, ranking 113th in passing explosiveness.
There aren’t weather concerns at McLane Stadium this weekend, so this number seems pretty off. The total for the game is 61.5 and there are expected to be plenty of points scores in a competitive matchup where the spread is -1.5 in favor of the Jayhawks.
This Baylor team has been underrated by the market all year, and that’s carried over to the player prop market. Jake Spavital has done a fantastic job as offensive coordinator and the assets in his offense are still being mispriced by the books.
Prop bet #3: Josh Kelly 70+ receiving yards
The West Virginia Mountaineers are a team I love to target nearly every week due to a faulty secondary that has been gashed by opposing teams. The Mountaineers rank 133rd in EPA per pass, 127th in passing success rate, and 132nd in passing explosiveness.
Those are ghastly numbers, especially for a Power Conference team. Next up in line to face this burnable secondary is the Texas Tech Red Raiders.
The go-to wide receiver in this offense is Josh Kelly. He’s been targeted 112 times, and the books have set Kelly’s receiving yardage prop at 70. That’s too low for a player who is peppered with volume, has an advantageous matchup, and is averaging 79.4 receiving yards per game.
Kelly has eclipsed this number in seven games this season, so it’d hardly require an outlier performance for him to hit this number. West Virginia is PFF’s 130th-ranked team in coverage, and its leaky secondary is not being accurately accounted for in the player prop market.
NCAAF odds Week 14
Here are the full NCAAF odds for all of today’s matchups.
Not intended for use in MA.
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