Louisville vs Oklahoma Prediction, Picks, and Odds for Today’s College Basketball Game

Louisville vs. Oklahoma has all the makings of a nail-biter, which has Rohit Ponnaiya siding with the underdog Sooners in his college basketball picks for Friday afternoon.

Rohit Ponnaiya - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Rohit Ponnaiya ? Betting Analyst
Nov 29, 2024 ? 11:04 ET ? 4 min read
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This article contains predictions for an old game!

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Oklahoma Sooners NCAAM Jeremiah Fears
Photo By - Imagn Images. Pictured: Jeremiah Fears.

The Louisville Cardinals face off against the Oklahoma Sooners in the Battle 4 Atlantis Final in the Bahamas today, with tip-off set for 5:30 p.m. ET on ESPN. 

Feast Week has seen plenty of upsets, which is why my Louisville vs. Oklahoma predictions are taking the points with the underdogs. Here are my best free college basketball picks for this clash on Friday, November 29.

Louisville vs Oklahoma prediction

My best bet
Oklahoma +3.5 (-110 at bet365)

My analysis

There's a lot of volatility with betting on college basketball early in the season, and that's become even more magnified during this era of mass transfers. That's been evident in the Battle 4 Atlantis Tournament, which has seen multiple upsets of ranked teams. 

The Louisville Cardinals hammered the Indiana Hoosiers 89-61 as 4-point underdogs in the first round of this tourney and outlasted West Virginia in overtime last night. The Oklahoma Sooners edged Providence 79-77 in the opening round before beating Arizona 82-77 as 7.5-point dogs in the semifinals.

There isn't a much data on either team since they've played few games against competitive opponents and have undergone so much personnel turnover. The Cardinals overhauled their entire roster under new head coach Pat Kelsey in the offseason. Meanwhile, the Sooners said goodbye to six of their Top 8 rotation players from last season, including their two leading scorers.

At this point in the season, analytics sites like Ken Pom and Bart Torvik tend to bring us the most accurate data points for analyzing teams. Those sites have these teams rated very close with KenPom and Bart Torvik projecting a 1-point Louisville win today. That makes the Sooners a tempting play, catching 3.5 points.

There are also a few areas where Oklahoma has a clear advantage. The Sooners are 82nd in the country in 3-point percentage (36.5%) and torched Arizona from deep last night. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are outside the Top 250 in 3-point percentage (29.8%) but attempt threes at the 12th highest rate in the country. In addition, the Sooners are 19th in the country in free throw percentage (79.3%), while the Cardinals are 145th with a 72.5 FT%.

Both of these teams do a great job of pressuring ball-handlers but Oklahoma has done a slightly better job of taking care of the ball lately. The Sooners have a turnover rate of 18.7% over their last three games while the Cardinals are at 21.5%. Those are the kind of edges that can make a difference in a close contest.

Louisville vs Oklahoma same-game parlay

Oklahoma +3.5

Under 150

These teams like to force turnovers and turn them into quick baskets on the other end. However, they also defend very well in transition with Oklahoma ranking 16th in the country in transition defense (per ShotQualityBets) and Louisville 23rd. 

The Cardinals are 18th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency and they are 5-1 to the Under this season. When you also factor in the tired legs that both teams could have playing in three straight days, they might not be able to push the tempo at their usual pace.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Cash your ML bets quicker with bet365's early win payout

Take advantage of the early win payout at bet365, where any pre-game CBB moneyline bet gets paid out as a winner if your school goes up by 18+ points!

Learn more about this feature, and all of bet365's offerings, with our comprehensive bet365 review.

21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Louisville vs Oklahoma odds

Louisville vs Oklahoma live odds

Louisville vs Oklahoma opening odds

  • Spread: Louisville -2.5 | Oklahoma +2.5
  • Moneyline: Louisville -150 | Oklahoma +125
  • Over/Under: Over 150 | Under 150

Odds courtesy of bet365

Louisville vs Oklahoma betting trend to know

The Under is 19-13 in Louisville's last 32 games (+4.75 Units / 13% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Louisville vs. Oklahoma.

How to watch Louisville vs Oklahoma

Location: Imperial Arena, Nassau, BS
Date: Friday, 11-29-2024
Tip-off: 5:30 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

Louisville vs Oklahoma key injuries

Not intended for use in MA.
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Betting Analyst

With a background playing soccer, rugby, and boxing, combined with a journalism degree, it's little surprise that Rohit gravitated towards the world of sports betting. He specializes in betting on UFC and college basketball, two sports where the eyeball test can tell you a lot more about matchups than any analytics. Rohit has years of experience handicapping NFL and NBA games as well as niche betting markets such as politics and Oscar odds. He's also the resident CFL expert and formerly hosted "The Chez and Ro Show" with former CFL star Davis Sanchez.

You can catch Rohit breaking down every UFC event with Joe Osborne on "P4P Picks" on the Covers YouTube channel and he also has regular appearances on "Before You Bet" with Joe. In addition, he's a regular guest on "By The Book" on the Monumental Sports Network and makes guest appearances on VSIN's "The Handle" and CBS Sports.

Rohit primarily makes his bets at bet365, which offers a wide variety of prop markets, but also has accounts at several others so he can shop around for the best prices. For Rohit, bankroll management is key. He believes you should never bet what you can't afford to lose and maximize those few betting opportunities where books misprice a line.

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