2025 Oscars Betting Odds & Predictions

Anora took the festival circuit by storm and is now listed as a front-runner to win Best Picture at DraftKings. However, bet365 has The Brutalist — another festival darling — ahead of it.

Jason Wilson - Publishing Editor at Covers.com
Jason Wilson ? Publishing Editor
Dec 4, 2024 ? 14:02 ET ? 5 min read
Anora Cast - Mikey Madison, Sean Baker, et al
Photo By - IMAGN Images.

Finally, at long last, we have 2025 Oscars odds!

Festival season is in the books, and we've got a bit of a clearer picture of which films will compete at the Academy Awards. We've also got a host! Conan O'Brien will MC the night as Hollywood honors its best and brightest from the past year on Sunday, March 2, 2025.

Here are the latest odds to win Best Picture at the event.

Odds to win Best Picture

Film DraftKings bet365
Anora  +175 +225
The Brutalist  +200 +162
Emilia Perez +700 +600
Sing Sing +700 +600
Wicked +900 +1,000
Conclave  +1,000 +800
Dune: Part Two +1,000 +700
Blitz  +1,400 +900
The Room Next Door  +1,600 +1,200
Saturday Night  +2,000 +1,400
Nickel Boys +2,000 +2,000
Gladiator 2 +2,000 +1,600
The Seed of the Sacred Fig  +2,500 +2,000
The Piano Lesson  +2,800 +2,500
A Real Pain +3,500 +3,300
Queer +4,000 +2,000
September 5 OTB +3,300
Small Things Like These +4,000 +3,300
All We Imagine as Light +4,000 +3,300
A Different Man +4,000 +3,300
A Complete Unknown +4,000 +3,300
The Supremes at Earl's All-You-Can-Eat +4,000 +3,300
Love Lies Bleeding +4,000 OTB
Juror No. 2 +4,000 +3,300
The Outrun +5,000 +3,300
Oh, Canada +5,000 +3,300
Nosferatu +5,000 +4,000
Maria +5,000 +3,300
Kinds of Kindness +5,000 +4,000
Shirley +5,000 OTB
Bird +6,500 +4,000
The Bikeriders +6,500 +6,600
We Live in Time +6,500 +5,000
The Beast +8,000 +5,000
Hard Truths +8,000 +6,600
Joker: Folie a Deux +10,000 +3,300
Challengers +10,000 +6,600
The Substance +10,000 +6,600
Will and Harper +10,000 +4,000

Odds as of 12-4.

This year's race is wide open 

Odds for Best Picture were routinely available before June last year. With the prospect of Barbie and Oppenheimer looming last July, books got out in front of the race. Additionally, there were other heavyweight releases on the calendar like Martin Scorsese's epic Killers of the Flower Moon, so the race had some tangible quality to it right away. This year has been different.

Whether due to the lingering effects of last summer's strikes or the surplus of movies left over from the pandemic finally drying up, 2025 hasn't been as impressive for Hollywood. While this may be frustrating for some, it has created the most intriguing Best Picture race in recent memory. Sure, Moonlight topping La La Land was a genuine surprise at the time and there have been others since, but the races had mostly been shorn up by the time festivals were done.

Or, at the very least, a concrete group of contenders were seen. While some movies are virtual locks to receive a BP nomination (AnoraThe Brutalist), there are a lot of polarizing titles in the race. Emilia Perez, for example, could lead all movies in nominations or it could miss out on most of the races entirely. Will Wicked actually be recognized? Or is the early hype around it more a response to how weak the calendar is perceived to be?

Will something more abstract and bold like Nickel Boys squeak into the race? Will Challengers storm back after being somewhat forgotten after an early-year release? These are all questions that have yet to fully crystallize into answers, and we likely won't get them until the nominations are released.

Also, beware of titles listed in odds that are not being released in 2024, ahead of the nomination cutoff. Some of these include Mickey 17Alto Knights, The Amateur, and others. None of these have been included in the above odds board.

Anora has emerged as a front-runner

In late August, I said to keep an eye on Anora in this space. Well, in a matter of two months, it has gone from +900 to +125 to win Best Picture. It's hardly a lock, but it's been one of the definitive crowd-pleasers on the slate, juggling a variety of tones from screwball to melodrama with grace while being supremely entertaining throughout. 

From director Sean Baker (Red Rocket, The Florida Project), Anora won the Palme d'Or at Cannes — making it the first American film to take home the honors since The Tree of Life in 2011 — and focuses on a young Uzbek-American stripper who enters a relationship with the son of a Russian oligarch. Baker's films exist on the periphery, focusing on the downtrodden and marginalized.

This is a smallish movie, but it wouldn't be super surprising to see the Academy go small immediately after awarding the biggest possible film in Oppenheimer.

Now, The Brutalist is drawing the shortest odds at bet365, and that can change in a heartbeat. It hasn't been released yet and it came out of nowhere (it wasn't even on the board in late August). While it's been a festival darling, I wonder if its 3.5-hour runtime will prove to be a barrier for Academy voters and the public at large.

A Real Pain stands a real chance

Of all the films listed, Jesse Eisenberg's A Real Pain surprised me the most at 50/1 in late November (it has since moved to +3,500, which makes more sense). It was beloved out of Sundance and has done very well critically and commercially in limited release. If it expands to more screens and gets greater exposure, it could be a true dark horse. Pundits have pegged it as a likely nominee in the Best Picture category, so while it may not seem like a win is in the offing, those odds are very strong for one that should crack the Top 10.

Academy Awards Odds FAQ

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Jason Wilson Covers.com
Publishing Editor

Jason Wilson is an experienced journalist who has worked in a variety of roles within the industry for the past 18 years. Working at community newspapers in New Brunswick, Jason wore many hats as a reporter, editor, and photographer, covering everything from sports to courts to municipal politics. After shifting gears and working as an educator for a few years in the 2010s, Jason returned to full-time work in media as an MLB news editor for six years at theScore in Toronto before joining Covers in late 2021.

He has honed his editorial acumen over his years in the industry, showcasing flexibility, patience, and a strong work ethic. While he was relatively new to sports betting upon joining Covers, Jason has taken the plunge with gusto to learn the ins and outs of the industry, both as a method to improve professionally and to add an extra angle to his sports fandom.

In addition to sports, Jason is an avid film nut and former movie critic who monitors the Academy Awards betting odds for Covers. Jason holds a Bachelor of Arts in journalism degree and a Bachelor of Education degree from St. Thomas University.

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